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Gold and the Double Dip

Many business economists and financial journalists are again talking about a "double dip" or renewed downturn in U.S. business activity.  As our clients and readers of this website know, we've long held the view that the U.S. economy would sink back into recession or, at best, a long period of sluggish growth insufficient to produce any meaningful gains in employment. Longer term, we see years of "stagflation" for the United States and European economies -- with sub-par economic growth, unacceptably high unemployment, and a troubling rise in inflation led by higher prices for many ...

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ASIA TRIP REPORT: Positive Signals for Gold

I'm just back from nearly three weeks in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam where I met with gold dealers, brokers, bankers, analysts, and leading gold-industry officials. Take-Home Message -- Very Positive The take-home message is very positive for gold:  Virtually everyone I asked expects gold consumption across the region -- both jewelry and investment -- to continue rising for years to come. And, there was also strong agreement that China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (the PBOC) would continue its own buying program well into the decade if not ...

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Why I’m Pessimistic on the Economy . . . and Optimistic on Gold

The following rather lengthy post is the full text of my June 9th speech, unabridged and unedited, to the Mines and Money Conference in Beijing, China: To begin with my conclusions, I believe we will continue to see gold generate lofty returns for years to come.  By year-end, I expect we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- and sometime in the next few years $2000 seems very likely . . . with $3000 or higher quite possible.  And, in my mind, these are quite conservative forecasts. At the crux of my bullish outlook is this:  History demonstrates time and again that excessive government ...

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Top Seven Bull Points for Gold

Just a few months ago, most analysts and market participants disagreed with our forecast that the U.S. dollar gold price would hit new highs by mid-year. And, until recently, most analysts and market participants also doubted our prediction that gold would hit $1500 an ounce by the end of 2010 . . . and that prices of $2000 and even $3000 were likely in the next few years. Now, with economic uncertainties on the rise, many who earlier disputed our bullish forecasts are now jumping on the bandwagon. Here, in brief, are the "Top Seven" reasons we see much higher gold prices ahead: #1 ...

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GOLD & SILVER: Speech to the ResourceOne Conference, New York

Those of you who know me know that I am quite optimistic about the outlook for gold and silver.  This may be good news for those of us in the mining business or invested in precious metals assets. Unfortunately, to be bullish on gold means that I'm pessimistic about the U.S. economy, particularly the outlook for inflation and economic growth, over the next few years.  More about this in a few minutes . . . Price Projections But first, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug -- which I'm definitely not -- let me give you some numbers:  I believe we will see gold back near its ...

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WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

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GOLD — LOOKS LIKE A STEAL!

Despite reports to the contrary, gold looks like a steal.  Even if we see further price weakness in the days and weeks ahead, we stand by our forecast that gold will again hit its record high of $1,227 an ounce by midyear and will reach $1,500 by year-end 2010.  We do, however, also expect continued volatility with big swings in both directions around an upward trend this year and beyond. For one thing, we think the best of the economic news is now behind us, certainly with regard to U.S. inflation rates, consumer spending, and industrial production, is now behind us -- and that indicators ...

Gold – Renewed Upswing Underway

Gold's recent price performance, strong physical demand for the metal in important world markets, worries about European and U.S. public debt, continuing aggressive monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and news of substantial long positions by some prominent institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds together have contributed to the resumption of gold's long-term upward march. We believe that after a three-month period of correction and consolidation beginning in early December 2009 (when gold hit an all-time record price of $1,227 an ounce) gold has begun advancing anew - ...

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Gold: Moving On Up . . . Again

The snap-back in the U.S. dollar gold price this past week to $1,100 an ounce may mark the beginning of a new upward phase in the metal's long-term bull market. Neither the announcement of prospective IMF gold sales nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rise in its discount rate had more than a fleeting affect on precious metals markets . . . and neither will derail gold's ascent to new record highs later this year. Gold's own positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets, and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow ...

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Gold: Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Promising

Regardless of the near-term prospects for gold, the long-term fundamentals promise substantial appreciation later this year and beyond. We remain firm in our conviction that gold prices will touch or surpass $1,500 in 2010 - and continue to move higher in subsequent years. Opportunity Knocks Gold at recent price levels offer investors and savers without a "core" position in the physical metal an opportunity to buy insurance against the very real possibility of future stock and bond market declines, accelerating inflation and a shrinking dollar, and turmoil in U.S. and world financial ...

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