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Gold Market Tightens Signaling Possible Price Recovery

Gold hit a fresh three-year low of $1,180 per ounce in late June. By early July the metal's price had struggled back to the $1,240 to $1,260 range.  Although the most recent decline began back in April, the sell-off accelerated in June, just moments after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's statement that the U.S. central bank might soon taper off its program of quantitative easing. Yesterday (Wednesday, July 10th) Chairman Bernanke put that notion to rest, at least for now, and gold quickly shot up some $50 an ounce briefly trading over the technically and psychologically important $1,300 level. ...

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GOLD IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

(Excerpts from my speech to the 7th annual CHINA GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS SUMMIT, Shanghai, China, December 5th through December 7th, 2012) Gold in recent months has been stuck in a trading range between $1675 and $1750 an ounce - disappointing many bullish investors and quite a few gold-market analysts (like myself) who had expected the yellow metal to be ending the year approaching - or even exceeding - its all-time high-water mark near $1924 recorded back in September of 2011. Recent attempts to rally higher have been thwarted by stepped-up speculative selling and softer physical ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold and the Economy: Don’t Be Fooled

After reaching a new record high of $1,430.95 last Tuesday, December 7th, gold fell back quite precipitously, mostly on profit taking by institutional traders and speculators in "paper" derivative markets.  By week's end, the metal traded as low as $1,372 to register a loss of nearly $60, about four percent, from the all-time high. Economic news in the United States (of improving cyclical indicators and initial reactions to the President's deal with Congressional Republicans on tax policy and unemployment benefits), in Europe (of some agreement within the Eurozone on funding Irish debt), ...

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ASIA TRIP REPORT: Positive Signals for Gold

I'm just back from nearly three weeks in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam where I met with gold dealers, brokers, bankers, analysts, and leading gold-industry officials. Take-Home Message -- Very Positive The take-home message is very positive for gold:  Virtually everyone I asked expects gold consumption across the region -- both jewelry and investment -- to continue rising for years to come. And, there was also strong agreement that China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (the PBOC) would continue its own buying program well into the decade if not ...

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Why I’m Pessimistic on the Economy . . . and Optimistic on Gold

The following rather lengthy post is the full text of my June 9th speech, unabridged and unedited, to the Mines and Money Conference in Beijing, China: To begin with my conclusions, I believe we will continue to see gold generate lofty returns for years to come.  By year-end, I expect we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- and sometime in the next few years $2000 seems very likely . . . with $3000 or higher quite possible.  And, in my mind, these are quite conservative forecasts. At the crux of my bullish outlook is this:  History demonstrates time and again that excessive government ...

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Top Seven Bull Points for Gold

Just a few months ago, most analysts and market participants disagreed with our forecast that the U.S. dollar gold price would hit new highs by mid-year. And, until recently, most analysts and market participants also doubted our prediction that gold would hit $1500 an ounce by the end of 2010 . . . and that prices of $2000 and even $3000 were likely in the next few years. Now, with economic uncertainties on the rise, many who earlier disputed our bullish forecasts are now jumping on the bandwagon. Here, in brief, are the "Top Seven" reasons we see much higher gold prices ahead: #1 ...

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GOLD — LOOKS LIKE A STEAL!

Despite reports to the contrary, gold looks like a steal.  Even if we see further price weakness in the days and weeks ahead, we stand by our forecast that gold will again hit its record high of $1,227 an ounce by midyear and will reach $1,500 by year-end 2010.  We do, however, also expect continued volatility with big swings in both directions around an upward trend this year and beyond. For one thing, we think the best of the economic news is now behind us, certainly with regard to U.S. inflation rates, consumer spending, and industrial production, is now behind us -- and that indicators ...

Gold – Renewed Upswing Underway

Gold's recent price performance, strong physical demand for the metal in important world markets, worries about European and U.S. public debt, continuing aggressive monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and news of substantial long positions by some prominent institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds together have contributed to the resumption of gold's long-term upward march. We believe that after a three-month period of correction and consolidation beginning in early December 2009 (when gold hit an all-time record price of $1,227 an ounce) gold has begun advancing anew - ...

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Gold: Moving On Up . . . Again

The snap-back in the U.S. dollar gold price this past week to $1,100 an ounce may mark the beginning of a new upward phase in the metal's long-term bull market. Neither the announcement of prospective IMF gold sales nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rise in its discount rate had more than a fleeting affect on precious metals markets . . . and neither will derail gold's ascent to new record highs later this year. Gold's own positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets, and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow ...

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