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Monetary Policy, Competitive Devaluation, Inflation Targeting . . . and the Future Price of Gold

Suddenly, our long-standing forecast of $1500 gold -- possibly by the end of this year -- doesn't seem so far-fetched . . . and, one by one, many economists, analysts, and investors are ratcheting up their price targets to keep pace with the market. The U.S. dollar price of gold is now up more than 20 percent this year and looks certain to score its tenth consecutive annual increase in a decade.  By comparison, U.S. equities, measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500, are up a meager four-to-five percent year to date. No Bubble Here Notably, the yellow metal's recent ...

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THE OUTLOOK FOR GOLD AND SILVER

Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors Speech presented to the SPC Precious Metal Company Seminar Bangkok, Thailand What a pleasure it is to be here today in this beautiful city to talk about one of my favorite subjects:The Outlook for Gold and Silver.I am honored by the S.P.C. Precious Metal Company and the Thailand Stock Exchange for sponsoring this seminar . . . and by all of you for taking time out of your busy schedules to hear my thoughts on these metals. So, let me begin with gold: I believe, before long, we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- ...

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GOLD: Summer Consolidatation — Bull Market Alive and Well

Gold prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks from their all-time high over $1265 on June 21st in New York.  By mid-July, gold was briefly below $1180 -- a drop of some seven percent. Faint-hearted gold investors need to remember that bull markets never move straight up.  When they do, it's called a "bubble" . . . and bubbles do burst. Instead, this market is moving up -- and will continue to move up -- in a stepwise pattern with occasional high volatility and big corrections on the road to much, much higher prices in the months and years to come. For the most part, this summer's ...

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Gold and the Double Dip

Many business economists and financial journalists are again talking about a "double dip" or renewed downturn in U.S. business activity.  As our clients and readers of this website know, we've long held the view that the U.S. economy would sink back into recession or, at best, a long period of sluggish growth insufficient to produce any meaningful gains in employment. Longer term, we see years of "stagflation" for the United States and European economies -- with sub-par economic growth, unacceptably high unemployment, and a troubling rise in inflation led by higher prices for many ...

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Why I’m Pessimistic on the Economy . . . and Optimistic on Gold

The following rather lengthy post is the full text of my June 9th speech, unabridged and unedited, to the Mines and Money Conference in Beijing, China: To begin with my conclusions, I believe we will continue to see gold generate lofty returns for years to come.  By year-end, I expect we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- and sometime in the next few years $2000 seems very likely . . . with $3000 or higher quite possible.  And, in my mind, these are quite conservative forecasts. At the crux of my bullish outlook is this:  History demonstrates time and again that excessive government ...

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Top Seven Bull Points for Gold

Just a few months ago, most analysts and market participants disagreed with our forecast that the U.S. dollar gold price would hit new highs by mid-year. And, until recently, most analysts and market participants also doubted our prediction that gold would hit $1500 an ounce by the end of 2010 . . . and that prices of $2000 and even $3000 were likely in the next few years. Now, with economic uncertainties on the rise, many who earlier disputed our bullish forecasts are now jumping on the bandwagon. Here, in brief, are the "Top Seven" reasons we see much higher gold prices ahead: #1 ...

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Gold – Renewed Upswing Underway

Gold's recent price performance, strong physical demand for the metal in important world markets, worries about European and U.S. public debt, continuing aggressive monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and news of substantial long positions by some prominent institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds together have contributed to the resumption of gold's long-term upward march. We believe that after a three-month period of correction and consolidation beginning in early December 2009 (when gold hit an all-time record price of $1,227 an ounce) gold has begun advancing anew - ...

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Gold, the Dollar, and the Economy

It's now nearly two months since gold registered an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, following a five-month run during which the metal rose more than $300 an ounce.  From a long-term perspective, this is a remarkable 380 percent trough-to-peak gain from its early 2001 cyclical low point of $255. Gold's strength last year reflected a number of factors: (1) record worldwide private investment demand (thanks, in part, to rising inflation expectations, pent-up demand from China, and the popularity of new gold investment vehicles in various markets); (2) net official purchases (after two ...

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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PRICE OF GOLD

From a long-term perspective, gold is a bargain at recent prices in the $900 to $930 an ounce . . . and will remain so even as it begins to move into a higher trading range. Recent gold-market developments and technical price action -- along with broader economic and financial-market developments -- suggest gold is bracing for a resumption of its long march upward and a retest of its historic high in the months ahead. First and foremost, the bullish outlook for gold rests on the increasing likelihood of accelerating U.S. inflation in the years to come -- and an associated unprecedented ...

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The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold

The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold Speech to the 3rd Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit Shanghai, China Thank you Mr. Chairman for that flattering introduction and thank you to the conference organizers who have made it possible for us to exchange information and insights into the future of gold here in China and in the global marketplace. You should know that my presentation today will be posted on my website, NicholsOnGold.com, so you can easily check back in a few days, or a month, or a year – to review my analysis and my expectations for gold. A few ...

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