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Surprise, Surprise!

Despite last week’s move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, America’s central bank, to tighten monetary policy a notch, gold prices surprised many observers of and participants in the gold scene who had expected the quarter-point increase in short-term interest rates would be sufficient to knock the metal into a still-lower trading range under $1,200 an ounce. After all, higher interest rates are widely perceived as a negative or bearish influence on the gold price. But, as noted below, it is really the “notional” real “inflation-adjusted” rate of interest, that matters, not the “nominal” rate as ...

Gold: Faulty Expectations

Contrary to expectations, ours and nearly everyone else’s who pay attention to the price of gold, the yellow metal has, since Election Day, shed nearly 15 percent of its value in U.S. dollars. According to the pundits who pay attention to such matters, the election of Donald Trump should have pulled the rug out from under stock prices, hammered the dollar against other major currencies, and propelled gold sharply higher. But once again the pundits have been proven wrong: Stock prices on Wall Street have zoomed to new historic highs and gold has, once again, disappointed. Despite this ...

Gold — Pregnant with Possibility

  Despite gold’s recent sell off, I feel increasingly comfortable with our short-term (one-year) and our long-term (five-to-seven year) forecast of the future price of gold. Indeed, by this time next year, gold’s price could be challenging or even surpassing the yellow metal’s all-time high of $1,924 an ounce reached in September 2011. And, looking further out, by the end of the current decade, gold could double ($4,000) or even triple ($6,000) its previous all-time high. This bullish forecast does not depend upon some global economic crisis, financial-market meltdown, or ...

Gold: Stuck in the Mud . . . But For How Long?

A reassessment of economic prospects and Fed policy in the weeks and months ahead could be just the turn of events that will support a springtime recovery in the price of gold, lifting the yellow metal up and out of its recent trading range.   Gold prices have been stuck in the mud, trading in recent weeks mostly between $1,175 and $1,225 an ounce. Unless some “outside-the-market” surprise comes along to push gold one way or the other, the yellow metal could remain range bound for weeks to come. Meanwhile, short-term fluctuations within this $50 an ounce trading range will continue to be ...

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Rosland Capital Review by Jeffrey Nichols – Trust is Necessary

You may have noticed elsewhere on this website, mention of Rosland Capital. Rosland is a retail dealer in gold and silver coins and investment bars . . . and they’ve been a client of mine for over five years. Officially, I’m “Senior Economic Advisor” to Rosland Capital. But my relationship with Rosland goes deeper than that. CEO and founder of Rosland, Marin Aleksov, has become a trusted friend and colleague. I’ve been in the gold business as an advisor, consultant, economist, and market researcher for over 40 years. My clients have included some of the biggest names in the gold world – ...

The Volcker Rule: Implications for Gold & Silver

The Volcker Rule, banning the largest U.S. banks from engaging in speculative trading, has now been approved by the U.S. financial regulatory agencies – with important implications for gold and silver. The Rule, a provision of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, forthwith prohibits banks with federally insured deposits from trading activities undertaken for their own benefit. ...

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