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WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

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GOLD — LOOKS LIKE A STEAL!

Despite reports to the contrary, gold looks like a steal.  Even if we see further price weakness in the days and weeks ahead, we stand by our forecast that gold will again hit its record high of $1,227 an ounce by midyear and will reach $1,500 by year-end 2010.  We do, however, also expect continued volatility with big swings in both directions around an upward trend this year and beyond. For one thing, we think the best of the economic news is now behind us, certainly with regard to U.S. inflation rates, consumer spending, and industrial production, is now behind us -- and that indicators ...

Gold – Renewed Upswing Underway

Gold's recent price performance, strong physical demand for the metal in important world markets, worries about European and U.S. public debt, continuing aggressive monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and news of substantial long positions by some prominent institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds together have contributed to the resumption of gold's long-term upward march. We believe that after a three-month period of correction and consolidation beginning in early December 2009 (when gold hit an all-time record price of $1,227 an ounce) gold has begun advancing anew - ...

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Gold: Moving On Up . . . Again

The snap-back in the U.S. dollar gold price this past week to $1,100 an ounce may mark the beginning of a new upward phase in the metal's long-term bull market. Neither the announcement of prospective IMF gold sales nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rise in its discount rate had more than a fleeting affect on precious metals markets . . . and neither will derail gold's ascent to new record highs later this year. Gold's own positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets, and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow ...

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Gold: Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Promising

Regardless of the near-term prospects for gold, the long-term fundamentals promise substantial appreciation later this year and beyond. We remain firm in our conviction that gold prices will touch or surpass $1,500 in 2010 - and continue to move higher in subsequent years. Opportunity Knocks Gold at recent price levels offer investors and savers without a "core" position in the physical metal an opportunity to buy insurance against the very real possibility of future stock and bond market declines, accelerating inflation and a shrinking dollar, and turmoil in U.S. and world financial ...

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Gold, the Dollar, and the Economy

It's now nearly two months since gold registered an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, following a five-month run during which the metal rose more than $300 an ounce.  From a long-term perspective, this is a remarkable 380 percent trough-to-peak gain from its early 2001 cyclical low point of $255. Gold's strength last year reflected a number of factors: (1) record worldwide private investment demand (thanks, in part, to rising inflation expectations, pent-up demand from China, and the popularity of new gold investment vehicles in various markets); (2) net official purchases (after two ...

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2010: Gold & Silver Expectations in Brief

Gold has enjoyed a long and enviable climb, rising some 380 percent from a cyclical low near $255 an ounce in April 2001 to an all-time high just over $1,225 in early December, 2009.  Although the bull market will celebrate its 9th birthday this year, it still has a long way to go, both in magnitude and duration. I expect the yellow metal will hit $1,500 an ounce  - or higher - during the New Year, a gain of more than 35 percent from its December 31st close. And looking further ahead, gold's bull market will likely continue for another few years, carrying the metal to a cyclical peak of ...

Speech to the 4th Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit

GOLD SITUATION & OUTLOOK: How Monetary Policies, Investment Demand, Central Bank Interest, and Other Supply/Demand Factors Are Affecting the Market and the Metal's Future Price Shanghai, China I've been asked to talk about the Gold Situation and Outlook - in particular how monetary and fiscal policies, private-sector investment demand, renewed central bank respect for gold, and other supply-demand factors are changing the market - and have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation - ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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Buenos Aires Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Latin Exploration 2009 Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director, American Precious Metals Advisors Senior Economic Advisor, Rosland Capital I've been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis - and the implications for gold. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America's economic policies over the past several decades that have landed us in today's international economic predicament. The root cause of the current economic crisis has been decades of easy ...

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