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A Quick Note on Gold Price Prospects

We are advising clients and subscribers to NicholsOnGold to expect another up-week for gold . . . driven largely by geopolitical anxiety over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the likely outcome of Sunday’s referendum on the future of Crimea. Gold is once again performing its historical function as a hedge and insurance policy against geopolitical risks and the vulnerability of other asset classes including equities and bonds.  Gold is also performing well vis-a-vis the dollar and most other currencies.   ...

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The Russian Bear – Bullish for Gold

So far, the gold market has largely ignored the East-West clash over Ukraine and control of Crimea. With gold recently trading mostly within the $1,340–to-$1,350 range, we’d guess the Ukraine/Crimea crisis has added no more than $10 or $15 an ounce to the yellow metal’s price.  But there is the potential for larger, more dramatic price movement in the weeks ahead. For the next few days, world financial markets will be anticipating the March 16th referendum in which Crimea will likely vote to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.  While this may already be reflected in the ...

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Easy Money – The Elixir of Gold

So far, 2014 has been a year of recovery for gold.  Trading recently near $1,320 an ounce, the metal is already up some 10 percent from its 2013 year-end price of $1,201.50 in the London bullion market. Gold’s improvement was apparently quite a surprise to many of the most prominent analysts and investors who, forecasting the price through a rear-view mirror, expected prices to head further south.  With gold possibly on a sustainable upswing, they are now busy jacking up their gold-price targets. Although gold has recovered smartly in recent weeks, an uninterrupted upswing to ...

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India Gold: Hot Curry on this Year’s Menu

In this “NicholsOnGold” commentary, we take a look at the gold-market situation and outlook for India, long the world’s biggest gold-importing country. The precipitous fall in gold imports during 2013 – from an annual rate of roughly 1000 tons per month early in the year to an annual rate of only 250 to 300 tons late in the year – was a powerful negative influence on the metal’s price in world markets during the past year, its impact on price being both physical (in terms of the overall global supply/demand situation) and psychological (in terms of investor sentiment). A relaxation of ...

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Tapered Expectations

Long constrained between $1,180 and $1,300 an ounce, gold has finally broken out on the upside, only to find itself trading within a new, albeit higher, range. Gold now enjoys a "floor" of solid support at $1,300 with initial support kicking in around $1,340. On the upside, initial resistance kicks in around $1,385 and continues up to the psychologically important $1,400 level - but, as outlined below, this "ceiling" could prove vulnerable in the weeks ahead. ...

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Suffering Gold

Gold continues to suffer under a cloud of bearish expectations.  Its price has been trending lower for some 20 months now - and, at recent lows, it is off some 30 percent from the September 2011 all-time high of $1924. A growing number of investors, analysts, and journalists are already writing obituaries for the decade-long bull market and foresee only a grim future for the yellow metal.  These naysayers, most prominently economist Nouriel Roubini who gained some renown for predicting the financial-market debacle of 2008, point to a number factors to support their bearish ...

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Captive Gold: A Quick Note on the Current Market

For now, gold remains captive to the flow of U.S. and global economic indicators and prospects . . . especially those that may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy. With the U.S. economy far from a satisfactory and self-sustaining recovery, the news is likely to become increasingly positive for gold -- with diminishing expectations of imminent "tapering" (that is scaling back the Fed's monthly bond-buying program) eventually replaced with talk of additional monetary stimulus of one sort or another. Home in the Range At the moment, however, gold appears range-bound between $1370 and ...

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GOLD — Confounded by the Machines and Dark Pools

Gold continues to confound, dropping another $25 an ounce this morning as technical and computer-driven program trading triggers selling on U.S. derivative markets, all despite favorable fundamentals and what should be seen as favorable economic and geopolitical developments. Gold Lower Despite Bullish News This morning's dispatches from India and China, the two biggest gold-consuming nations, report that demand in these markets continues unabated . . . and coin dealers report still-strong retail demand for bullion coins and small bars in the Western markets. News from the Middle East -- ...

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Excerpts from Interview with South Africa’s MoneyWeb

MoneyWeb: We saw that astonishing decline in the gold price and in gold stocks yesterday. The biggest one-day drop in the price of bullion since 1980 and it has fallen about 13% since Thursday. ?   Gold’s price is down nearly 25% since last October. We are far off those all-time highs of $1,900/oz back in 2011, with the gold price currently trading at $1 382.63. We welcome Jeffrey Nichols, MD of American Precious Metals Advisors to the programme.  Jeffrey, you are calling the latest moves in the gold market “insanity”. Why? JEFFREY NICHOLS: Absolutely – because this past week’s sharp ...

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GOLD: FOLLOW THE MAN IN THE STREET . . . AND IN THE SOUK

Gold is inching closer to an upside breakout building good technical support between US$1650 and US$1690.  Sooner or later $1700 will become the new floor instead of the old ceiling. In the short run, the institutional speculators and trading desks at the big banks and hedge funds are making good money trading the range based on technical trading models and the latest bit of news -- economic or political -- out of Washington. At the same time, most professional gold watchers in the U.S. and Europe seem to have their eyes focused on prospective Fed policy and fiscal policy disarray in ...

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