Subscribe FOR ALL ACCESS TO Nichols On gold
Follow Us on Twitter @NicholsOnGold.com

Gold Market Update

Although continued “uncertainty” and “caution” remain the gold market’s watchwords, the odds favor further gold-price recovery in the weeks and months ahead -- despite continuing attempts by large-scale speculators and institutional traders,  driven by computer models and momentum indicators, to knock gold prices lower. For the moment, we believe gold prices are still in a “bottoming phase” and may have more work, technically speaking, around recent levels before breaking through overhead resistance and moving substantially higher.   ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold, the Economy, and a Whiff of Stagflation

It was only a matter of time before gold prices broke through overhead resistance at the technically important $1,300 an ounce level.  Now, $1,300 - plus or minus a few dollars - may be the new floor . . . and it looks like $1,350 may be the new ceiling. ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Fed Policy: A Quick Note

At this morning's presentation to the House Financial Services Committee, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said reductions of the Fed's bond-buying program, known as Quantitative Easing or simply QE, is "by no means on a preset course" and that the Fed could leave the program intact-or even increase purchases-if warranted. Most Fed watchers and financial market participants -- including many gold traders and investors -- are betting QE3 will continue with monthly asset purchases of $85 billion for another quarter or two before a gradual reduction and winding down of the current ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold Market Tightens Signaling Possible Price Recovery

Gold hit a fresh three-year low of $1,180 per ounce in late June. By early July the metal's price had struggled back to the $1,240 to $1,260 range.  Although the most recent decline began back in April, the sell-off accelerated in June, just moments after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's statement that the U.S. central bank might soon taper off its program of quantitative easing. Yesterday (Wednesday, July 10th) Chairman Bernanke put that notion to rest, at least for now, and gold quickly shot up some $50 an ounce briefly trading over the technically and psychologically important $1,300 level. ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Suffering Gold

Gold continues to suffer under a cloud of bearish expectations.  Its price has been trending lower for some 20 months now - and, at recent lows, it is off some 30 percent from the September 2011 all-time high of $1924. A growing number of investors, analysts, and journalists are already writing obituaries for the decade-long bull market and foresee only a grim future for the yellow metal.  These naysayers, most prominently economist Nouriel Roubini who gained some renown for predicting the financial-market debacle of 2008, point to a number factors to support their bearish ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Captive Gold: A Quick Note on the Current Market

For now, gold remains captive to the flow of U.S. and global economic indicators and prospects . . . especially those that may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy. With the U.S. economy far from a satisfactory and self-sustaining recovery, the news is likely to become increasingly positive for gold -- with diminishing expectations of imminent "tapering" (that is scaling back the Fed's monthly bond-buying program) eventually replaced with talk of additional monetary stimulus of one sort or another. Home in the Range At the moment, however, gold appears range-bound between $1370 and ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Time for Contrary Thinking . . . and an Asset Allocation Adjustment

Sentiment in the gold market - especially among the hedge funds and institutional speculators - is already EXTREMELY NEGATIVE.   Market psychology can't get much worse.  Even the gold bugs are dumbfounded.  But, contrarians say this unbalanced situation could be signaling an approaching upturn in prices. The downward pressure on prices emanates from two distinct sources of selling:  First, trading by the gold dealing firms and institutional speculators in the regulated futures markets and the unregulated over-the-counter markets often guided by complex computer algorithms.  These are the ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

GOLD: A Quick Note on Fed Policy

Gold prices moved higher this morning in anticipation of Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony today before the Joint Economic Committee. Recent speeches by other Fed officials in the past few days suggest the Fed will leave the door open to stepped-up quantitative easing should the economy falters or if inflation remains below target. Any talk of more QE from Bernanke this morning could give gold enough juice to re-test overhead resistance around $1400 . . . and possibly move higher. See my recent posts on NicholsOnGold.com for more on Fed policy and the economy. ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Fed Speak: Implications for Gold

This week's gold-price action reflects a market once again range bound, searching for direction in an uncertain economic environment.  For sure, the risks of further gold-price retreat remain high.  Much depends on the market's sense of prospective Federal Reserve policies. This Wednesday the financial markets will be listening carefully to the latest Fed speak on monetary policy and the economy for clues. First off, the FMOC will be releasing the minutes of its April policy-setting meeting -- always an interesting document to Fed watchers who, like the Greek oracles, look for meaning in ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold: Vulnerable, but Looking for a Bounce

No one should be surprised if gold prices take another dive. The market certainly remains vulnerable to more institutional selling. That said, I'm looking for a bounce-back in the week ahead -- with the yellow metal recovering some of the ground lost in the recent flash crash -- if only because the price has fallen so far, so fast. Some of the institutional players who were inclined to lighten their long positions or short the metal along the way down have already done so . . . and some of the large hedge funds -- including a few that made news by selling in recent months -- may begin ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.