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RISK/REWARD RATIO FAVORS LONG SIDE

Although gold remains vulnerable in the short term, the risk/reward ratio increasingly favors the long side -- and we are advocating more aggressive investment purchases should gold again dip below $900 an ounce. Even if the metal first weakens, the overall picture is looking a little brighter and, before long, we could see the gold move to a somewhat higher trading range. Importantly, the selling of old jewelry and other gold-bearing items in many global markets abated when prices recently dropped briefly below $900.  And, more recently, even with prices trading in the $920 to $940 ...

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GOLD — A NEW MONETARY ROLE?

China and Russia are agitating for a demotion of the dollar in the world monetary system with a new “super-sovereign” basket of currencies, possibly even including gold as the Russian’s have suggested, gaining stature as the new lynchpin. Though such talk may hearten the advocates of gold, the possibility of any sudden change in the world monetary system seems remote, if only because no alternative can provide the, necessarily very large and very liquid capital markets necessary to accommodate reinvestment of reserve assets now held in U.S. dollars. And, for all their talk, the Chinese, ...

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GOLD: STILL VULNERABLE

Gold's tumble in recent days, now about 9.5 percent from its late-February high just briefly over $1000 an ounce, is no surprise to readers of NicholsOnGold.com.  Although we remain bullish for the long-term and foresee more than a doubling of the gold price in the next few years, the immediate picture is less rosy . . . and the yellow metal remains vulnerable to further short-term selling. A number of factors have contributed to gold's decline in the past week and may remain influential in the weeks ahead: •    First and foremost, the market has had to absorb an absolutely fantastic ...

NO SURPRISES

Gold's retreat in recent days from its brief flirtation last week over $1000 an ounce was no surprise.  We warned in recent posts that the surge in secondary supply, particularly from Asian and Mideastern markets, and the worldwide collapse of fabrication demand left the price vulnerable -- and an easing of investor interest could bring a sizable correction in the yellow metal's price. Moreover, when everyone seems to be jumping on the gold train, nary a bear is to be seen, bulls are uniformly revising upward their price forecasts, and the financial press suddenly gets all hot and bothered, ...

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A Brief Note on Gold ETFs

Bullion held in depositories on behalf of gold exchange-traded funds investors is at record levels . . .  and, in recent days, has been growing by leaps and bounds.  Worldwide total gold ETF holdings now exceed 1365 tons (42.6 million ounces). To put this number in perspective, ETFs now hold more gold than the Swiss central bank. Strikingly, gold held by ETFs now account for more than 40 percent of identifiable gold investment worldwide. ...

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Bipolar Gold

With the price of gold lurching first one way then the other, it looks like the market has been suffering from bipolar disorder.  I expect this split-personality behavior, characterized by extreme price volatility, to continue for some time to come with big swings up and down -- but, importantly, around a rising trend with support levels moving up step-wise over time. In short, gold is heading much higher, but not without more struggle and occasional disappointment for those looking for a speedy ascent.  Further out -- over the next year or two -- I have no doubt that gold will move to new ...

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A Conversation with Gold Historian Tim Green

Good friend and renown gold historian Tim Green has been researching and writing about gold for more than 40 years.  His latest book, The Ages of Gold, is the most comprehensive ever written on the history of mines, markets and the price over 6,000 years.  For those of us interested in gold today, there's much wisdom to be learned from the long view -- as you'll discover from my recent conversation with Tim. Jeff Nichols:  What struck you most in researching the 6,000 year history of gold? Tim Green:  The stability of its price over long periods, often centuries, which built up its ...

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The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold

The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold Speech to the 3rd Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit Shanghai, China Thank you Mr. Chairman for that flattering introduction and thank you to the conference organizers who have made it possible for us to exchange information and insights into the future of gold here in China and in the global marketplace. You should know that my presentation today will be posted on my website, NicholsOnGold.com, so you can easily check back in a few days, or a month, or a year – to review my analysis and my expectations for gold. A few ...

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The Deflation/Inflation Conumdrum

Gold was bound to rise once the selling abated . . . and each day it remains in $800+ territory, the technical picture and the yellow metal's good fortunes improve. ...

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GOLD — Deflation Hedge?

Gold's relative price strength in recent days -- in the face of plummeting U.S. consumer and producer prices, declining prices for oil and other (non-precious metals) commodities, and lower multi-year lows in world equity markets -- suggests that the yellow metal, technically speaking, may be building a solid base in the $770 to $800 range from which to embark on a sustainable advance into higher territory. Interestingly, gold has been outperforming silver and the PGMs, suggesting that investors and traders are differentiating among the metals, favoring gold as a monetary asset, safe haven, ...

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