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Back from Vacation: The More Things Change . . .

I’m just back from a two-week vacation from the gold market.  In the interim much has changed – especially the metal’s price, which has fallen some $65 to $75 an ounce.  That’s more than five percent – but no reason to despair! While the price has weakened, the metal’s fundamentals, fundamentals we have discussed in past reports, have continued to improve, so much so that some bounce-back now seems likely – with bigger gains due later this year. ...

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Gold: On the Verge . . . or Nearing a Cliff

Gold has had difficulty sustaining recent rallies and remains trapped in a $50 trading range.  At the lower end, incremental physical demand has so far kept the price above its recent floor around $1175 an ounce . . . but selling by funds and other institutional traders of gold ETFs and “paper” proxies has limited attempts to rally. Whatever improvement in sentiment and upward momentum that may have resulted from this year’s encouraging first-quarter start has now dissipated.  The longer gold lingers in its current range the more difficult it will be for the yellow metal to break out on the ...

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Gold Insights on Recent Price Action

The past few weeks have been trying times for gold investors.  In mid-March, just when it looked like gold prices were set to break out into higher territory, the market shifted into reverse, leaving many investors and analysts wondering what was going on. To put some numbers on it, at its recent low point, gold was off some eight percent from its mid-March six-month high – and is continues bouncing around within the technically significant $1265 to $1305 range.  A breakout in either direction could set the market’s tone for the weeks ahead. That said, we’ve never put much faith in ...

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Easy Money – The Elixir of Gold

So far, 2014 has been a year of recovery for gold.  Trading recently near $1,320 an ounce, the metal is already up some 10 percent from its 2013 year-end price of $1,201.50 in the London bullion market. Gold’s improvement was apparently quite a surprise to many of the most prominent analysts and investors who, forecasting the price through a rear-view mirror, expected prices to head further south.  With gold possibly on a sustainable upswing, they are now busy jacking up their gold-price targets. Although gold has recovered smartly in recent weeks, an uninterrupted upswing to ...

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Gold Mine Production: Who Cares?

Gold-mine output and production costs may mean a lot to gold miners and to investors in gold-mining equities, but should they mean a lot to the rest of us? Total global gold-mine output (primary supply) will make headlines this year, hitting a new record with “reported” annual production just over 3000 tons (about 96.5 million ounces). Actual mine production is probably somewhat higher taking into account unreported output from informal producers and under-reporting by China and possibly a few other countries. The continuing growth in worldwide mine production – even in the past year ...

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India Gold: Hot Curry on this Year’s Menu

In this “NicholsOnGold” commentary, we take a look at the gold-market situation and outlook for India, long the world’s biggest gold-importing country. The precipitous fall in gold imports during 2013 – from an annual rate of roughly 1000 tons per month early in the year to an annual rate of only 250 to 300 tons late in the year – was a powerful negative influence on the metal’s price in world markets during the past year, its impact on price being both physical (in terms of the overall global supply/demand situation) and psychological (in terms of investor sentiment). A relaxation of ...

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Gold, ETFs, the Fed, and Equity Valuations

Over the past year or two, as the broad equity indexes moved from one high to the next, institutional money – seeking higher quarterly returns – has been moving out of gold and into stocks. This institutional flight from gold by Western investors may have been the single-most important factor weighing on gold prices in the past couple of years – and it owes much to the introduction and popular acceptance of gold exchange-traded funds over the past decade. ...

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Rosland Capital Review by Jeffrey Nichols – Trust is Necessary

You may have noticed elsewhere on this website, mention of Rosland Capital. Rosland is a retail dealer in gold and silver coins and investment bars . . . and they’ve been a client of mine for over five years. Officially, I’m “Senior Economic Advisor” to Rosland Capital. But my relationship with Rosland goes deeper than that. CEO and founder of Rosland, Marin Aleksov, has become a trusted friend and colleague. I’ve been in the gold business as an advisor, consultant, economist, and market researcher for over 40 years. My clients have included some of the biggest names in the gold world – ...

The Fed Tapers and Gold Topples

Surprised?  So am I, both by the Fed’s decision, announced this past Wednesday, to taper back its easy-money policies of the past year . . . and, even more so, by the subsequent fall in gold and silver prices. In fact, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke surprised many investors, traders, and analysts, announcing the Fed would cut back its monthly asset purchases by a relatively modest $10 billion in January – and continue “in further measured steps” if the economic recovery stays on track. To understand my own expectations ahead of the Fed announcement, read my last commentary ...

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Gold This Week — Eyes on U.S. Monetary Policy

Precious metals and the broader financial markets continue to react to the latest economic news, both statistical and political, with traders and investors guessing how each new bit of information on the economy may affect the Fed’s decision – when and by how much – to cut back, or taper, its $85 billion per month bond-buying program. It has become the accepted wisdom of the markets that rosy economic prospects increase the odds that the central bank will choose to begin tapering sooner rather than later . . . and expectations of reduced monetary stimulus have been one of the key bearish ...

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