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Gold: Treading Water in Turbulent Seas

Gold has been somewhat of a disappointment to many analysts and investors who, as of a few months ago, were still anticipating higher prices again this year.  But the year is not over, nor is gold's long-term secular bull market. With eleven years of advancing prices already chalked up on the scoreboard, the long-term secular upswing has five-to-ten years of life still ahead - and maybe more.  Along the way, expect continuing volatility, periods of consolidation, and occasional corrections, corrections sometimes so severe that some will prematurely and incorrectly call the game over. We ...

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Un-Seasonal Expectations

Despite the winding down of East Asia's Lunar New Year gold buying binge, I expect the yellow metal's price will continue to move up in the weeks ahead - but not without some struggle as gold works to reestablish upward momentum and renewed credibility. Historically, with the arrival of the Lunar New Year, gold demand and the metal's price typically enter a seasonally weak period -- but the typical seasonality is no longer a reliable guide to gold price prospects. The usually weak summer months this past year saw gold run up to new historic highs above $1,900 an ounce . . . and, contrary ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold’s Long March Upward Continues

Despite gold's recent run up to new historic highs, I believe the yellow metal's price has far to go - both in future percentage appreciation and duration before the great gold bull market comes to its ultimate cyclical end. Right now, there is no evidence of a buying frenzy to suggest we are anywhere near a long-term top . . . but there are plenty of rock-solid fundamentals that suggest the market is healthy with plenty of room to move higher.  Moreover, the world economic and geopolitical environment remains very supportive - and seems likely to remain pro-gold for years to come. My ...

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Dog Days of Summer: Cooling Off for Gold Unlikely

The days and weeks ahead could be tumultuous for gold with the yellow metal's price primed to move one way or the other depending on news from European finance ministers, the European Central Bank, the Greek Parliament and, last but not least, the Fed's FOMC policy-setting committee and Chairman Bernanke's news conference later this week. Technically, gold remains range bound with good support, as we saw last week, between $1515-$1522 and overhead resistance in the $1545-$1555 range.  A break out in either direction, perhaps triggered by news of a more fundamental nature, could signal a ...

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Gold & Silver: The Long March Upward Resumes

Just a few weeks ago, gold and silver prices were soaring, almost beyond belief.  A growing chorus of investors, analysts, and financial journalists opined that the "bubble" in precious metals prices would soon pop - and many predicted an imminent long-term bear market was just around the corner. And, when precious metals prices tumbled - gold from its all-time intraday high of $1,576.50 on May 1st to an intraday low of $1,463.20 just four days later and silver from $49.59 on April 28th to $32.44 a couple of weeks later - pundits were quick to declare that the bubble burst . . . and many ...

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Up, Up, and Away: The Bullish Case for Gold

Keynote Speech by Jeffrey Nichols The New York Hard Assets Conference The recent correction in precious metals prices and mining shares has led some investors, analysts, and financial journalists to conclude we’ve already seen the ultimate bull-market peaks in gold and silver. I’m here today to tell you otherwise – but please don’t mistake me for a gold bug.Although, I believe quite strongly that its price will go much higher in the next few years, I don’t think there’s anything magical about the yellow metal. The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, ...

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In Brief: The Bullish Case for Gold

Stimulative U.S. monetary policies, irresponsible U.S. fiscal policies, and an uncertain outlook for the U.S. dollar. Despite some hopeful economic indicators here and there, persistent recession-like business conditions - especially the weak housing sector and high unemployment - gives the Federal Reserve no alternative than continuing its accommodative and ultimately inflationary policies. Higher industrial and agricultural commodity prices and rising inflation expectations will promote investment and speculative demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Global commodity inflation is ...

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GOLD 2011: Another Banner Year

Gold began the new millennium under $300 an ounce . . . and under a cloud of pessimism among even many of its most ardent advocates.  To mainstream investors and central bankers around the world, its two-decade decline (from 1980's all-time high near $875) confirmed the yellow metal was no more than a "barbarous relic." What a difference a decade makes!  Ten years later, gold had advanced to more than $1000 an ounce - to $1087.50 basis the December 30, 2009 London PM fix - for a gain of roughly 275 percent over the ten-year period. Gold - By the Numbers Gold's steep ascent continued in ...

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Gold and the Economy: Don’t Be Fooled

After reaching a new record high of $1,430.95 last Tuesday, December 7th, gold fell back quite precipitously, mostly on profit taking by institutional traders and speculators in "paper" derivative markets.  By week's end, the metal traded as low as $1,372 to register a loss of nearly $60, about four percent, from the all-time high. Economic news in the United States (of improving cyclical indicators and initial reactions to the President's deal with Congressional Republicans on tax policy and unemployment benefits), in Europe (of some agreement within the Eurozone on funding Irish debt), ...

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