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Gold and the Economy: Don’t Be Fooled

After reaching a new record high of $1,430.95 last Tuesday, December 7th, gold fell back quite precipitously, mostly on profit taking by institutional traders and speculators in "paper" derivative markets.  By week's end, the metal traded as low as $1,372 to register a loss of nearly $60, about four percent, from the all-time high. Economic news in the United States (of improving cyclical indicators and initial reactions to the President's deal with Congressional Republicans on tax policy and unemployment benefits), in Europe (of some agreement within the Eurozone on funding Irish debt), ...

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THE OUTLOOK FOR GOLD AND SILVER

Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors Speech presented to the SPC Precious Metal Company Seminar Bangkok, Thailand What a pleasure it is to be here today in this beautiful city to talk about one of my favorite subjects:The Outlook for Gold and Silver.I am honored by the S.P.C. Precious Metal Company and the Thailand Stock Exchange for sponsoring this seminar . . . and by all of you for taking time out of your busy schedules to hear my thoughts on these metals. So, let me begin with gold: I believe, before long, we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- ...

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ASIA TRIP REPORT: Positive Signals for Gold

I'm just back from nearly three weeks in Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, and Vietnam where I met with gold dealers, brokers, bankers, analysts, and leading gold-industry officials. Take-Home Message -- Very Positive The take-home message is very positive for gold:  Virtually everyone I asked expects gold consumption across the region -- both jewelry and investment -- to continue rising for years to come. And, there was also strong agreement that China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (the PBOC) would continue its own buying program well into the decade if not ...

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Top Seven Bull Points for Gold

Just a few months ago, most analysts and market participants disagreed with our forecast that the U.S. dollar gold price would hit new highs by mid-year. And, until recently, most analysts and market participants also doubted our prediction that gold would hit $1500 an ounce by the end of 2010 . . . and that prices of $2000 and even $3000 were likely in the next few years. Now, with economic uncertainties on the rise, many who earlier disputed our bullish forecasts are now jumping on the bandwagon. Here, in brief, are the "Top Seven" reasons we see much higher gold prices ahead: #1 ...

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GOLD & SILVER: Speech to the ResourceOne Conference, New York

Those of you who know me know that I am quite optimistic about the outlook for gold and silver.  This may be good news for those of us in the mining business or invested in precious metals assets. Unfortunately, to be bullish on gold means that I'm pessimistic about the U.S. economy, particularly the outlook for inflation and economic growth, over the next few years.  More about this in a few minutes . . . Price Projections But first, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug -- which I'm definitely not -- let me give you some numbers:  I believe we will see gold back near its ...

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WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

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2010: Gold & Silver Expectations in Brief

Gold has enjoyed a long and enviable climb, rising some 380 percent from a cyclical low near $255 an ounce in April 2001 to an all-time high just over $1,225 in early December, 2009.  Although the bull market will celebrate its 9th birthday this year, it still has a long way to go, both in magnitude and duration. I expect the yellow metal will hit $1,500 an ounce  - or higher - during the New Year, a gain of more than 35 percent from its December 31st close. And looking further ahead, gold's bull market will likely continue for another few years, carrying the metal to a cyclical peak of ...

Speech to the 4th Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit

GOLD SITUATION & OUTLOOK: How Monetary Policies, Investment Demand, Central Bank Interest, and Other Supply/Demand Factors Are Affecting the Market and the Metal's Future Price Shanghai, China I've been asked to talk about the Gold Situation and Outlook - in particular how monetary and fiscal policies, private-sector investment demand, renewed central bank respect for gold, and other supply-demand factors are changing the market - and have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation - ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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Buenos Aires Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Latin Exploration 2009 Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director, American Precious Metals Advisors Senior Economic Advisor, Rosland Capital I've been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis - and the implications for gold. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America's economic policies over the past several decades that have landed us in today's international economic predicament. The root cause of the current economic crisis has been decades of easy ...

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