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GOLD BEARS BEWARE

Gold bears have been a gleeful group of late, pointing to the recent decline in gold exchange-traded fund holdings as evidence of investor disinterest in the yellow metal.  Gold bears also see the market's rather lackluster performance over the past year and a half - and the failure of prices to move higher - as further evidence the decade-long bull market has run its course. Yes, gold has retreated some 20 percent from its September 2011 all-time high (near $1,924 an ounce) to its subsequent low (just over $1,520). Yes, Gold ETFs have seen some substantial and high-profile withdrawals in ...

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GOLD: Talking Points

In my view, there is a very high probability gold will surpass $2000 an ounce by year-end 2013 - and it could go much higher.  Moreover, by mid-decade, the metal's price could double or even triple from recent levels. Looking backward, gold is off some $250-$260 from its September 2011 all-time high of $1924 an ounce.  This is a decline of roughly 13 percent - in line with past bull-market corrections. In the weeks ahead, much depends on institutional speculators at the big banks and hedge funds.  In the past year or so, these large-scale players have made good money trading futures, ...

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GOLD: FOLLOW THE MAN IN THE STREET . . . AND IN THE SOUK

Gold is inching closer to an upside breakout building good technical support between US$1650 and US$1690.  Sooner or later $1700 will become the new floor instead of the old ceiling. In the short run, the institutional speculators and trading desks at the big banks and hedge funds are making good money trading the range based on technical trading models and the latest bit of news -- economic or political -- out of Washington. At the same time, most professional gold watchers in the U.S. and Europe seem to have their eyes focused on prospective Fed policy and fiscal policy disarray in ...

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GOLD IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

(Excerpts from my speech to the 7th annual CHINA GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS SUMMIT, Shanghai, China, December 5th through December 7th, 2012) Gold in recent months has been stuck in a trading range between $1675 and $1750 an ounce - disappointing many bullish investors and quite a few gold-market analysts (like myself) who had expected the yellow metal to be ending the year approaching - or even exceeding - its all-time high-water mark near $1924 recorded back in September of 2011. Recent attempts to rally higher have been thwarted by stepped-up speculative selling and softer physical ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold – Just an Innocent Bystander

"At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working their way higher once again." That was my view published on NicholsOnGold.com in late August. Gold has certainly taken a dive - and could stumble further in the days immediately ahead - but I think we will see the yellow metal begin its comeback sooner rather than later, possible in the next few days. This summer we raised our ...

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Gold & Silver: The Long March Upward Resumes

Just a few weeks ago, gold and silver prices were soaring, almost beyond belief.  A growing chorus of investors, analysts, and financial journalists opined that the "bubble" in precious metals prices would soon pop - and many predicted an imminent long-term bear market was just around the corner. And, when precious metals prices tumbled - gold from its all-time intraday high of $1,576.50 on May 1st to an intraday low of $1,463.20 just four days later and silver from $49.59 on April 28th to $32.44 a couple of weeks later - pundits were quick to declare that the bubble burst . . . and many ...

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Up, Up, and Away: The Bullish Case for Gold

Keynote Speech by Jeffrey Nichols The New York Hard Assets Conference The recent correction in precious metals prices and mining shares has led some investors, analysts, and financial journalists to conclude we’ve already seen the ultimate bull-market peaks in gold and silver. I’m here today to tell you otherwise – but please don’t mistake me for a gold bug.Although, I believe quite strongly that its price will go much higher in the next few years, I don’t think there’s anything magical about the yellow metal. The future price of gold is a function of past and prospective world economic, ...

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Arab Tensions Push Gold Higher

Unrest continues across North Africa and the Middle East . . . and gold, reverting to its historic role as the preeminent safe haven, is reflecting the day-by-day rise in uncertainty - both political and economic. Arabs of every persuasion have been heading to the souks, their local gold shops, stocking up as a precaution against political unrest and economic uncertainty - after all, physical gold in the form of small bars and investment-grade jewelry travels well should they need to take flight. Asian Buying Remains Strong At the same time, Indian and Chinese investors and speculators ...

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GOLD 2011: Another Banner Year

Gold began the new millennium under $300 an ounce . . . and under a cloud of pessimism among even many of its most ardent advocates.  To mainstream investors and central bankers around the world, its two-decade decline (from 1980's all-time high near $875) confirmed the yellow metal was no more than a "barbarous relic." What a difference a decade makes!  Ten years later, gold had advanced to more than $1000 an ounce - to $1087.50 basis the December 30, 2009 London PM fix - for a gain of roughly 275 percent over the ten-year period. Gold - By the Numbers Gold's steep ascent continued in ...

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