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GOLD – Dark Clouds, Bright Skies

Disappointing news for the U.S. economy is good news for gold investors. Recent economic data show an economy that is "stuck in the mud," to quote Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  And, in response to signs of a slowing economy, the U.S. central bank is, sooner or later, likely to embark on another round of monetary easing. In fact, the recent gold-price rally that took the yellow metal back over the psychologically important $1,600 an ounce level reflects rising market expectations that the Fed will announce further economic stimulus following the July 31-August 1 Federal Open Market Committee ...

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GOLD: Still Waiting for the Fed

Gold shed more than $50 an ounce in a blink following last Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve that America’s central bank would not, at least not now, initiate another round of quantitative easing, opting instead for more muted monetary stimulus by extending its “Operation Twist” through year-end. Operation Twist, in which the Fed sells short-term U.S. Treasury securities from its portfolio and simultaneously purchases longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds, is intended to stimulate the economy by lowering medium- and long-term interest rates without actually speeding up growth in the ...

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GOLD: Waiting for the Fed

Bad news for the American and other major world economies is usually good news for gold and silver – especially when it triggers expectations of more accommodative, more reflationary, monetary policies.After all, easy money is what these precious metals thrive upon. Indeed, the near-term outlook for gold and silver is now very much dependent on U.S. monetary policies and, to a lesser extent, the unfolding European debt and currency crisis. With the U.S. Federal Reserve’s next policy-setting meeting set for June 19th/20th, the next week or so may be the last chance for investors to buy gold ...

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Gold: Treading Water in Turbulent Seas

Gold has been somewhat of a disappointment to many analysts and investors who, as of a few months ago, were still anticipating higher prices again this year.  But the year is not over, nor is gold's long-term secular bull market. With eleven years of advancing prices already chalked up on the scoreboard, the long-term secular upswing has five-to-ten years of life still ahead - and maybe more.  Along the way, expect continuing volatility, periods of consolidation, and occasional corrections, corrections sometimes so severe that some will prematurely and incorrectly call the game over. We ...

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OPPORTUNITY KNOCKS — A Quick Note on Recent Gold-Price Action

This past week's dramatic gold-price action - with the metal falling some 5.8 percent from a Wednesday high of $1,790 an ounce (in European trading) to a low of $1,687 (in after-hours New York trading) - does nothing to dissuade us from our super-bullish long-term view of gold-price prospects. Indeed, we have often warned clients and readers of NicholsOnGold to expect occasional episodes of great price volatility with sizable corrections that would lead many investors and pundits to prematurely eulogize the end of gold's bull run.  Wednesday's decline was just such a correction - and it ...

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GOLDEN JUNCTURE

With the Greek drama taking an intermission and the euro strengthening at the U.S. dollar’s expense, it looks like gold wants to move higher – and, quite possibly, it has enough oomph to break through strong technical overhead resistance as we approach and possibly exceed $1,800 an ounce. As I have pointed out in past NicholsOnGold commentaries, it is important to distinguish the forces and players that drive gold prices in the short term – measured in days, weeks, and sometimes months – from those that determine the longer-term trend and average price over many years. Short-Term ...

Un-Seasonal Expectations

Despite the winding down of East Asia's Lunar New Year gold buying binge, I expect the yellow metal's price will continue to move up in the weeks ahead - but not without some struggle as gold works to reestablish upward momentum and renewed credibility. Historically, with the arrival of the Lunar New Year, gold demand and the metal's price typically enter a seasonally weak period -- but the typical seasonality is no longer a reliable guide to gold price prospects. The usually weak summer months this past year saw gold run up to new historic highs above $1,900 an ounce . . . and, contrary ...

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Gold Sizzles

In case you hadn't noticed, gold prices have been surging to new all-time high rising to $1,878.90 an ounce in intraday trading on Friday, August 19th. Whether gold continues to skyrocket, settles into a new trading range around recent levels, or plummets as high prices discourage buyers and encourage profit-takers is anyone's guess. At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working ...

Gold’s Long March Upward Continues

Despite gold's recent run up to new historic highs, I believe the yellow metal's price has far to go - both in future percentage appreciation and duration before the great gold bull market comes to its ultimate cyclical end. Right now, there is no evidence of a buying frenzy to suggest we are anywhere near a long-term top . . . but there are plenty of rock-solid fundamentals that suggest the market is healthy with plenty of room to move higher.  Moreover, the world economic and geopolitical environment remains very supportive - and seems likely to remain pro-gold for years to come. My ...

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Dog Days of Summer: Cooling Off for Gold Unlikely

The days and weeks ahead could be tumultuous for gold with the yellow metal's price primed to move one way or the other depending on news from European finance ministers, the European Central Bank, the Greek Parliament and, last but not least, the Fed's FOMC policy-setting committee and Chairman Bernanke's news conference later this week. Technically, gold remains range bound with good support, as we saw last week, between $1515-$1522 and overhead resistance in the $1545-$1555 range.  A break out in either direction, perhaps triggered by news of a more fundamental nature, could signal a ...

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