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QUICK MARKET COMMENTARY

Despite further gold ETF liquidation in recent days and some short spec selling on futures exchanges, gold prices are moving higher on unrelenting physical demand for small bars, coins, and jewelry from the gold-friendly Asian markets as well as retail investment demand in US and European, especially for gold (and silver) bullion coins. It is particularly encouraging to see gold move higher despite the stronger dollar (against the euro and yen, for example) . . . and at a time when equities are moving lower (or at least are not moving higher). In the past year and a half, the continuing ...

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Excerpts from Interview with South Africa’s MoneyWeb

MoneyWeb: We saw that astonishing decline in the gold price and in gold stocks yesterday. The biggest one-day drop in the price of bullion since 1980 and it has fallen about 13% since Thursday. ?   Gold’s price is down nearly 25% since last October. We are far off those all-time highs of $1,900/oz back in 2011, with the gold price currently trading at $1 382.63. We welcome Jeffrey Nichols, MD of American Precious Metals Advisors to the programme.  Jeffrey, you are calling the latest moves in the gold market “insanity”. Why? JEFFREY NICHOLS: Absolutely – because this past week’s sharp ...

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FUELING GOLD’S FUTURE ASCENT

Gold has certainly taken a beating in recent days, giving up all of the gains attained during the Cyprus crisis -- and down nearly 20 percent from its all-time high back in September 2011. And, now having suffered two consecutive quarterly declines for the first time since early 2001, some analysts and investors are abandoning the yellow metal, proclaiming that gold's decade-long bull market has run its course. I'm no "gold bug" – but I couldn't disagree more . . . based on solid reasoning and objective analysis. Short-Term Shock Therapy What the gold market needs to move higher is a ...

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GOLD BEARS BEWARE

Gold bears have been a gleeful group of late, pointing to the recent decline in gold exchange-traded fund holdings as evidence of investor disinterest in the yellow metal.  Gold bears also see the market's rather lackluster performance over the past year and a half - and the failure of prices to move higher - as further evidence the decade-long bull market has run its course. Yes, gold has retreated some 20 percent from its September 2011 all-time high (near $1,924 an ounce) to its subsequent low (just over $1,520). Yes, Gold ETFs have seen some substantial and high-profile withdrawals in ...

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GOLD – Dark Clouds, Bright Skies

Disappointing news for the U.S. economy is good news for gold investors. Recent economic data show an economy that is "stuck in the mud," to quote Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.  And, in response to signs of a slowing economy, the U.S. central bank is, sooner or later, likely to embark on another round of monetary easing. In fact, the recent gold-price rally that took the yellow metal back over the psychologically important $1,600 an ounce level reflects rising market expectations that the Fed will announce further economic stimulus following the July 31-August 1 Federal Open Market Committee ...

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GOLD: Still Waiting for the Fed

Gold shed more than $50 an ounce in a blink following last Wednesday’s news from the Federal Reserve that America’s central bank would not, at least not now, initiate another round of quantitative easing, opting instead for more muted monetary stimulus by extending its “Operation Twist” through year-end. Operation Twist, in which the Fed sells short-term U.S. Treasury securities from its portfolio and simultaneously purchases longer-dated Treasury notes and bonds, is intended to stimulate the economy by lowering medium- and long-term interest rates without actually speeding up growth in the ...

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Un-Seasonal Expectations

Despite the winding down of East Asia's Lunar New Year gold buying binge, I expect the yellow metal's price will continue to move up in the weeks ahead - but not without some struggle as gold works to reestablish upward momentum and renewed credibility. Historically, with the arrival of the Lunar New Year, gold demand and the metal's price typically enter a seasonally weak period -- but the typical seasonality is no longer a reliable guide to gold price prospects. The usually weak summer months this past year saw gold run up to new historic highs above $1,900 an ounce . . . and, contrary ...

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GOLD PRICE TO SNAP BACK

In contrast to the closing months of 2011, gold has begun the new year on a more positive note.  Whatever the metal’s short-term prospects — indeed even if gold takes another dive — we believe 2012 will be another stellar year for gold investors. Gold topped out at an all-time high just over $1,924 an ounce in early September - a whopping gain of some $600 or about 50 percent from last January’s low point.  But as investors know all too well, gold prices can be quite volatile - with big upswings often followed by big downswings, albeit around a rising long-term trend.  Such has been the ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold Sizzles

In case you hadn't noticed, gold prices have been surging to new all-time high rising to $1,878.90 an ounce in intraday trading on Friday, August 19th. Whether gold continues to skyrocket, settles into a new trading range around recent levels, or plummets as high prices discourage buyers and encourage profit-takers is anyone's guess. At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working ...