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GOLD & SILVER: Speech to the ResourceOne Conference, New York

Those of you who know me know that I am quite optimistic about the outlook for gold and silver.  This may be good news for those of us in the mining business or invested in precious metals assets. Unfortunately, to be bullish on gold means that I'm pessimistic about the U.S. economy, particularly the outlook for inflation and economic growth, over the next few years.  More about this in a few minutes . . . Price Projections But first, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug -- which I'm definitely not -- let me give you some numbers:  I believe we will see gold back near its ...

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WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

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2010: Gold & Silver Expectations in Brief

Gold has enjoyed a long and enviable climb, rising some 380 percent from a cyclical low near $255 an ounce in April 2001 to an all-time high just over $1,225 in early December, 2009.  Although the bull market will celebrate its 9th birthday this year, it still has a long way to go, both in magnitude and duration. I expect the yellow metal will hit $1,500 an ounce  - or higher - during the New Year, a gain of more than 35 percent from its December 31st close. And looking further ahead, gold's bull market will likely continue for another few years, carrying the metal to a cyclical peak of ...

Speech to the 4th Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit

GOLD SITUATION & OUTLOOK: How Monetary Policies, Investment Demand, Central Bank Interest, and Other Supply/Demand Factors Are Affecting the Market and the Metal's Future Price Shanghai, China I've been asked to talk about the Gold Situation and Outlook - in particular how monetary and fiscal policies, private-sector investment demand, renewed central bank respect for gold, and other supply-demand factors are changing the market - and have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation - ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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Buenos Aires Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Latin Exploration 2009 Conference Buenos Aires, Argentina Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director, American Precious Metals Advisors Senior Economic Advisor, Rosland Capital I've been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis - and the implications for gold. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America's economic policies over the past several decades that have landed us in today's international economic predicament. The root cause of the current economic crisis has been decades of easy ...

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INDIA SPEECH: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Sixth Annual India International Gold Convention Goa, India Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director, American Precious Metals Advisors Thank you, Mr. Chairman for your kind introduction . . . and many thanks also to the conference organizers for inviting me to participate in this prestigious gathering. It is a great honor to be here today, not only to share my views – but to learn from you, and make many new friends in the Indian Gold Community. A few weeks ago, in preparation for today’s presentation, I asked the conference organizer what I should talk about.He said, I should ...

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KEY GOLD-PRICE DRIVERS

As clients know, we remain “extremely optimistic” on the gold-price outlook -- but, unlike many other bullish analysts, we believe the metal’s ascent will take several years to reach its next long-term cyclical peak. In the meantime, expect high volatility and a difficult climb, fraught with sharp reversals along the way that will, at times, cause some observers to wonder if the market has already topped out. Ultimately, gold will most likely climb into the US$2000 to $3000 range – but it could go even higher given the right confluence of economic and political developments . . . or if a ...

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IPMI Speech

Gold Situation and Outlook Presentation to the International Precious Metals Institute I've been asked to talk about one of my favorite subjects: Gold . . . or, more precisely, the global market for the metal and the factors likely to influence its future price.  In fact, gold is a subject on which I could talk for hours . . . but I've been asked to keep my presentation somewhat shorter - so I'll try to give you some highlights and conclusions. My comments today will be posted on my website - NicholsOnGold.com - so, if you're interested you can easily check back to review my analysis and ...

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GOLD: STILL VULNERABLE

Gold's tumble in recent days, now about 9.5 percent from its late-February high just briefly over $1000 an ounce, is no surprise to readers of NicholsOnGold.com.  Although we remain bullish for the long-term and foresee more than a doubling of the gold price in the next few years, the immediate picture is less rosy . . . and the yellow metal remains vulnerable to further short-term selling. A number of factors have contributed to gold's decline in the past week and may remain influential in the weeks ahead: •    First and foremost, the market has had to absorb an absolutely fantastic ...