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Gold: Moving On Up . . . Again

The snap-back in the U.S. dollar gold price this past week to $1,100 an ounce may mark the beginning of a new upward phase in the metal's long-term bull market. Neither the announcement of prospective IMF gold sales nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rise in its discount rate had more than a fleeting affect on precious metals markets . . . and neither will derail gold's ascent to new record highs later this year. Gold's own positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets, and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow ...

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Gold, the Dollar, and the Economy

It's now nearly two months since gold registered an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, following a five-month run during which the metal rose more than $300 an ounce.  From a long-term perspective, this is a remarkable 380 percent trough-to-peak gain from its early 2001 cyclical low point of $255. Gold's strength last year reflected a number of factors: (1) record worldwide private investment demand (thanks, in part, to rising inflation expectations, pent-up demand from China, and the popularity of new gold investment vehicles in various markets); (2) net official purchases (after two ...

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2010: Gold & Silver Expectations in Brief

Gold has enjoyed a long and enviable climb, rising some 380 percent from a cyclical low near $255 an ounce in April 2001 to an all-time high just over $1,225 in early December, 2009.  Although the bull market will celebrate its 9th birthday this year, it still has a long way to go, both in magnitude and duration. I expect the yellow metal will hit $1,500 an ounce  - or higher - during the New Year, a gain of more than 35 percent from its December 31st close. And looking further ahead, gold's bull market will likely continue for another few years, carrying the metal to a cyclical peak of ...

Speech to the 4th Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit

GOLD SITUATION & OUTLOOK: How Monetary Policies, Investment Demand, Central Bank Interest, and Other Supply/Demand Factors Are Affecting the Market and the Metal's Future Price Shanghai, China I've been asked to talk about the Gold Situation and Outlook - in particular how monetary and fiscal policies, private-sector investment demand, renewed central bank respect for gold, and other supply-demand factors are changing the market - and have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation - ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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Official Sector Gold Policies – At a Turning Point

I believe we are now at a key turning point in the modern history of gold as an official reserve asset – a turning point that is very propitious for the metal’s price in years to come. Central banks attitudes with respect to gold are becoming increasingly positive.After years of persistent net sales by central banks in the aggregate, the official sector may soon become a net purchaser of gold from the market. In fact, if we include sovereign wealth funds – which are non-central bank government-owned investment institutions – the official sector may already be a net buyer of gold. On ...

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Official Sector Gold Policies – At a Turning Point

I believe we are now at a key turning point in the modern history of gold as an official reserve asset – a turning point that is very propitious for the metal’s price in years to come. Central banks attitudes with respect to gold are becoming increasingly positive.After years of persistent net sales by central banks in the aggregate, the official sector may soon become a net purchaser of gold from the market. ...

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KEY GOLD-PRICE DRIVERS

As clients know, we remain “extremely optimistic” on the gold-price outlook -- but, unlike many other bullish analysts, we believe the metal’s ascent will take several years to reach its next long-term cyclical peak. In the meantime, expect high volatility and a difficult climb, fraught with sharp reversals along the way that will, at times, cause some observers to wonder if the market has already topped out. Ultimately, gold will most likely climb into the US$2000 to $3000 range – but it could go even higher given the right confluence of economic and political developments . . . or if a ...

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IPMI Speech

Gold Situation and Outlook Presentation to the International Precious Metals Institute I've been asked to talk about one of my favorite subjects: Gold . . . or, more precisely, the global market for the metal and the factors likely to influence its future price.  In fact, gold is a subject on which I could talk for hours . . . but I've been asked to keep my presentation somewhat shorter - so I'll try to give you some highlights and conclusions. My comments today will be posted on my website - NicholsOnGold.com - so, if you're interested you can easily check back to review my analysis and ...

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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PRICE OF GOLD

From a long-term perspective, gold is a bargain at recent prices in the $900 to $930 an ounce . . . and will remain so even as it begins to move into a higher trading range. Recent gold-market developments and technical price action -- along with broader economic and financial-market developments -- suggest gold is bracing for a resumption of its long march upward and a retest of its historic high in the months ahead. First and foremost, the bullish outlook for gold rests on the increasing likelihood of accelerating U.S. inflation in the years to come -- and an associated unprecedented ...

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