Subscribe FOR ALL ACCESS TO Nichols On gold
Follow Us on Twitter @NicholsOnGold.com

U.S. POLITICS, ECONOMIC POLICY, AND THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD

Gold thrives on political and economic uncertainty . . . and we've got plenty of that now that the Republican Party has seized control of the House of Representatives and narrowed the Democratic majority in the Senate.  What's more, the U.S. Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is adding to the uncertain political and economic landscape as it embarks on another large dose of monetary stimulus. Without a doubt, the new arithmetic on Capitol Hill -- along with the Fed's recent policy shift -- reinforces the bullish case for gold and raises my confidence that gold prices will rise to $2000 ...

U.S. Elections, Economic-Policy Prospects, and the Price of Gold

America's Congress is up for grabs in just a few days -- and world financial markets have a serious case of the jitters. No one knows for sure what the make-up of the U.S. House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate will be next year . . . but it's hard to imagine we won't be faced with more gridlock and more acrimony on Capitol Hill -- in short, a dysfunctional government that is incapable of dealing effectively with America's serious economic problems. With the liberal Obama Administration and a more conservative Congress at loggerheads, it is likely that America's central bank will, by ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Monetary Policy, Competitive Devaluation, Inflation Targeting . . . and the Future Price of Gold

Suddenly, our long-standing forecast of $1500 gold -- possibly by the end of this year -- doesn't seem so far-fetched . . . and, one by one, many economists, analysts, and investors are ratcheting up their price targets to keep pace with the market. The U.S. dollar price of gold is now up more than 20 percent this year and looks certain to score its tenth consecutive annual increase in a decade.  By comparison, U.S. equities, measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average or the S&P 500, are up a meager four-to-five percent year to date. No Bubble Here Notably, the yellow metal's recent ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

THE OUTLOOK FOR GOLD AND SILVER

Jeffrey Nichols Managing Director of American Precious Metals Advisors Speech presented to the SPC Precious Metal Company Seminar Bangkok, Thailand What a pleasure it is to be here today in this beautiful city to talk about one of my favorite subjects:The Outlook for Gold and Silver.I am honored by the S.P.C. Precious Metal Company and the Thailand Stock Exchange for sponsoring this seminar . . . and by all of you for taking time out of your busy schedules to hear my thoughts on these metals. So, let me begin with gold: I believe, before long, we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

GOLD: Summer Consolidatation — Bull Market Alive and Well

Gold prices have fallen sharply in recent weeks from their all-time high over $1265 on June 21st in New York.  By mid-July, gold was briefly below $1180 -- a drop of some seven percent. Faint-hearted gold investors need to remember that bull markets never move straight up.  When they do, it's called a "bubble" . . . and bubbles do burst. Instead, this market is moving up -- and will continue to move up -- in a stepwise pattern with occasional high volatility and big corrections on the road to much, much higher prices in the months and years to come. For the most part, this summer's ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold and the Double Dip

Many business economists and financial journalists are again talking about a "double dip" or renewed downturn in U.S. business activity.  As our clients and readers of this website know, we've long held the view that the U.S. economy would sink back into recession or, at best, a long period of sluggish growth insufficient to produce any meaningful gains in employment. Longer term, we see years of "stagflation" for the United States and European economies -- with sub-par economic growth, unacceptably high unemployment, and a troubling rise in inflation led by higher prices for many ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Why I’m Pessimistic on the Economy . . . and Optimistic on Gold

The following rather lengthy post is the full text of my June 9th speech, unabridged and unedited, to the Mines and Money Conference in Beijing, China: To begin with my conclusions, I believe we will continue to see gold generate lofty returns for years to come.  By year-end, I expect we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- and sometime in the next few years $2000 seems very likely . . . with $3000 or higher quite possible.  And, in my mind, these are quite conservative forecasts. At the crux of my bullish outlook is this:  History demonstrates time and again that excessive government ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

GOLD & SILVER: Speech to the ResourceOne Conference, New York

Those of you who know me know that I am quite optimistic about the outlook for gold and silver.  This may be good news for those of us in the mining business or invested in precious metals assets. Unfortunately, to be bullish on gold means that I'm pessimistic about the U.S. economy, particularly the outlook for inflation and economic growth, over the next few years.  More about this in a few minutes . . . Price Projections But first, at the risk of sounding like a gold bug -- which I'm definitely not -- let me give you some numbers:  I believe we will see gold back near its ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

GOLD — LOOKS LIKE A STEAL!

Despite reports to the contrary, gold looks like a steal.  Even if we see further price weakness in the days and weeks ahead, we stand by our forecast that gold will again hit its record high of $1,227 an ounce by midyear and will reach $1,500 by year-end 2010.  We do, however, also expect continued volatility with big swings in both directions around an upward trend this year and beyond. For one thing, we think the best of the economic news is now behind us, certainly with regard to U.S. inflation rates, consumer spending, and industrial production, is now behind us -- and that indicators ...