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GOLD PRICE TO SNAP BACK

In contrast to the closing months of 2011, gold has begun the new year on a more positive note.  Whatever the metal’s short-term prospects — indeed even if gold takes another dive — we believe 2012 will be another stellar year for gold investors. Gold topped out at an all-time high just over $1,924 an ounce in early September - a whopping gain of some $600 or about 50 percent from last January’s low point.  But as investors know all too well, gold prices can be quite volatile - with big upswings often followed by big downswings, albeit around a rising long-term trend.  Such has been the ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold’s Long March Upward Continues

Despite gold's recent run up to new historic highs, I believe the yellow metal's price has far to go - both in future percentage appreciation and duration before the great gold bull market comes to its ultimate cyclical end. Right now, there is no evidence of a buying frenzy to suggest we are anywhere near a long-term top . . . but there are plenty of rock-solid fundamentals that suggest the market is healthy with plenty of room to move higher.  Moreover, the world economic and geopolitical environment remains very supportive - and seems likely to remain pro-gold for years to come. My ...

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Dog Days of Summer: Cooling Off for Gold Unlikely

The days and weeks ahead could be tumultuous for gold with the yellow metal's price primed to move one way or the other depending on news from European finance ministers, the European Central Bank, the Greek Parliament and, last but not least, the Fed's FOMC policy-setting committee and Chairman Bernanke's news conference later this week. Technically, gold remains range bound with good support, as we saw last week, between $1515-$1522 and overhead resistance in the $1545-$1555 range.  A break out in either direction, perhaps triggered by news of a more fundamental nature, could signal a ...

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Gold & Silver: The Long March Upward Resumes

Just a few weeks ago, gold and silver prices were soaring, almost beyond belief.  A growing chorus of investors, analysts, and financial journalists opined that the "bubble" in precious metals prices would soon pop - and many predicted an imminent long-term bear market was just around the corner. And, when precious metals prices tumbled - gold from its all-time intraday high of $1,576.50 on May 1st to an intraday low of $1,463.20 just four days later and silver from $49.59 on April 28th to $32.44 a couple of weeks later - pundits were quick to declare that the bubble burst . . . and many ...

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Gold: Still Far to Go

As unrest and regime change threatens a swath of countries across North Africa and the Middle East, gold is reverting to its historic role as the preeminent safe haven - but it's price is just beginning to reflect the rise in political and economic uncertainty in the region and around the world. Frankly, given the political prospects for a number of strategic countries across the region, the possibility of long-term uncertainties, and the threat to oil supplies, I'm surprised gold has not performed better, especially in light of its own bullish market fundamentals. Inflation Pressures: ...

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Arab Tensions Push Gold Higher

Unrest continues across North Africa and the Middle East . . . and gold, reverting to its historic role as the preeminent safe haven, is reflecting the day-by-day rise in uncertainty - both political and economic. Arabs of every persuasion have been heading to the souks, their local gold shops, stocking up as a precaution against political unrest and economic uncertainty - after all, physical gold in the form of small bars and investment-grade jewelry travels well should they need to take flight. Asian Buying Remains Strong At the same time, Indian and Chinese investors and speculators ...

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In Brief: The Bullish Case for Gold

Stimulative U.S. monetary policies, irresponsible U.S. fiscal policies, and an uncertain outlook for the U.S. dollar. Despite some hopeful economic indicators here and there, persistent recession-like business conditions - especially the weak housing sector and high unemployment - gives the Federal Reserve no alternative than continuing its accommodative and ultimately inflationary policies. Higher industrial and agricultural commodity prices and rising inflation expectations will promote investment and speculative demand for gold as an inflation hedge. Global commodity inflation is ...

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GOLD 2011: Another Banner Year

Gold began the new millennium under $300 an ounce . . . and under a cloud of pessimism among even many of its most ardent advocates.  To mainstream investors and central bankers around the world, its two-decade decline (from 1980's all-time high near $875) confirmed the yellow metal was no more than a "barbarous relic." What a difference a decade makes!  Ten years later, gold had advanced to more than $1000 an ounce - to $1087.50 basis the December 30, 2009 London PM fix - for a gain of roughly 275 percent over the ten-year period. Gold - By the Numbers Gold's steep ascent continued in ...

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Gold and the Economy: Don’t Be Fooled

After reaching a new record high of $1,430.95 last Tuesday, December 7th, gold fell back quite precipitously, mostly on profit taking by institutional traders and speculators in "paper" derivative markets.  By week's end, the metal traded as low as $1,372 to register a loss of nearly $60, about four percent, from the all-time high. Economic news in the United States (of improving cyclical indicators and initial reactions to the President's deal with Congressional Republicans on tax policy and unemployment benefits), in Europe (of some agreement within the Eurozone on funding Irish debt), ...

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