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Gold Mine Production: Who Cares?

Gold-mine output and production costs may mean a lot to gold miners and to investors in gold-mining equities, but should they mean a lot to the rest of us? Total global gold-mine output (primary supply) will make headlines this year, hitting a new record with “reported” annual production just over 3000 tons (about 96.5 million ounces). Actual mine production is probably somewhat higher taking into account unreported output from informal producers and under-reporting by China and possibly a few other countries. The continuing growth in worldwide mine production – even in the past year ...

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China’s Central Bank Buys Gold on the Sly

Bullish news may soon be coming out of China.  We hear that the country’s central bank will soon announce a substantial increase in its official gold holdings, bringing the total to some 2,710 tons at the end of last year. NicholsOnGold has long held the view that China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (the PBOC), has been surreptitiously adding to its official gold reserves. The PBOC reported in April 2009 that its official gold reserves stood at 1,054 tons – and it has not reported any increase in official gold reserves since that announcement nearly five years ago. Now, ...

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Gold Slumps as Wall Street Soars

With the Dow topping 16000 and the S&P500 index reaching 1800 – both psychologically important levels – gold continues to be an innocent victim of the frenzy on Wall Street. Trading around $1245 an ounce the metal’s price is off some 25 percent from the start of 2013 and is 35 percent below its September 2011 all-time high. Reflecting the super-stimulative monetary policies currently pursued by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank, U.S. and world equity markets are achieving new all-time highs as more and more investors jump on the stock-market ...

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Tapered Expectations

Long constrained between $1,180 and $1,300 an ounce, gold has finally broken out on the upside, only to find itself trading within a new, albeit higher, range. Gold now enjoys a "floor" of solid support at $1,300 with initial support kicking in around $1,340. On the upside, initial resistance kicks in around $1,385 and continues up to the psychologically important $1,400 level - but, as outlined below, this "ceiling" could prove vulnerable in the weeks ahead. ...

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GOLD: Institutional Divestment Nearly Over

Gold has been in retreat since hitting an all-time high of US$1,924 an ounce in September 2011. That's an astonishing decline of more than 35 percent -- a whooping correction in the midst of, in my view, a long-term bull market that began roughly a dozen years ago and still has years of life ahead. Over the past year and a half, hedge funds and other institutional investors have been persistent sellers -- mostly of gold ETFs. In doing so, they have provided ample supplies to meet the persistent and continuing demand for physical metal by Asian investors and central banks. ...

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Gold Market Tightens Signaling Possible Price Recovery

Gold hit a fresh three-year low of $1,180 per ounce in late June. By early July the metal's price had struggled back to the $1,240 to $1,260 range.  Although the most recent decline began back in April, the sell-off accelerated in June, just moments after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's statement that the U.S. central bank might soon taper off its program of quantitative easing. Yesterday (Wednesday, July 10th) Chairman Bernanke put that notion to rest, at least for now, and gold quickly shot up some $50 an ounce briefly trading over the technically and psychologically important $1,300 level. ...

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Suffering Gold

Gold continues to suffer under a cloud of bearish expectations.  Its price has been trending lower for some 20 months now - and, at recent lows, it is off some 30 percent from the September 2011 all-time high of $1924. A growing number of investors, analysts, and journalists are already writing obituaries for the decade-long bull market and foresee only a grim future for the yellow metal.  These naysayers, most prominently economist Nouriel Roubini who gained some renown for predicting the financial-market debacle of 2008, point to a number factors to support their bearish ...

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Captive Gold: A Quick Note on the Current Market

For now, gold remains captive to the flow of U.S. and global economic indicators and prospects . . . especially those that may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy. With the U.S. economy far from a satisfactory and self-sustaining recovery, the news is likely to become increasingly positive for gold -- with diminishing expectations of imminent "tapering" (that is scaling back the Fed's monthly bond-buying program) eventually replaced with talk of additional monetary stimulus of one sort or another. Home in the Range At the moment, however, gold appears range-bound between $1370 and ...

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GOLD — Confounded by the Machines and Dark Pools

Gold continues to confound, dropping another $25 an ounce this morning as technical and computer-driven program trading triggers selling on U.S. derivative markets, all despite favorable fundamentals and what should be seen as favorable economic and geopolitical developments. Gold Lower Despite Bullish News This morning's dispatches from India and China, the two biggest gold-consuming nations, report that demand in these markets continues unabated . . . and coin dealers report still-strong retail demand for bullion coins and small bars in the Western markets. News from the Middle East -- ...

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QUICK MARKET COMMENTARY

Despite further gold ETF liquidation in recent days and some short spec selling on futures exchanges, gold prices are moving higher on unrelenting physical demand for small bars, coins, and jewelry from the gold-friendly Asian markets as well as retail investment demand in US and European, especially for gold (and silver) bullion coins. It is particularly encouraging to see gold move higher despite the stronger dollar (against the euro and yen, for example) . . . and at a time when equities are moving lower (or at least are not moving higher). In the past year and a half, the continuing ...

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