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Founding Fathers Liked Gold

To be sure, more than a few of our nation’s Founding Fathers owned gold and silver coins to preserve wealth at a time when paper currency wasn’t worth a Continental. Washington, Adams, Jefferson, Hamilton, Franklin, and Madison, each likely held gold coins as a form of saving and to preserve wealth during years of high inflation. And they all, each and every one of them, while distrustful of paper currency, believed there should be a role for gold in the young nation’s monetary and banking system. Alexander Hamilton, the nation’s first Secretary of the Treasury under President ...

Why I’m Pessimistic on the Economy . . . and Optimistic on Gold

The following rather lengthy post is the full text of my June 9th speech, unabridged and unedited, to the Mines and Money Conference in Beijing, China: To begin with my conclusions, I believe we will continue to see gold generate lofty returns for years to come.  By year-end, I expect we will see gold hit $1500 an ounce -- and sometime in the next few years $2000 seems very likely . . . with $3000 or higher quite possible.  And, in my mind, these are quite conservative forecasts. At the crux of my bullish outlook is this:  History demonstrates time and again that excessive government ...

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Top Seven Bull Points for Gold

Just a few months ago, most analysts and market participants disagreed with our forecast that the U.S. dollar gold price would hit new highs by mid-year. And, until recently, most analysts and market participants also doubted our prediction that gold would hit $1500 an ounce by the end of 2010 . . . and that prices of $2000 and even $3000 were likely in the next few years. Now, with economic uncertainties on the rise, many who earlier disputed our bullish forecasts are now jumping on the bandwagon. Here, in brief, are the "Top Seven" reasons we see much higher gold prices ahead: #1 ...

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WHERE NEXT FOR GOLD?

From its recent low under $1090 an ounce on March 24th, gold has recovered some lost ground, trading above $1120 and testing the $1130 level in early April.  From a somewhat longer perspective, gold has risen roughly 30 percent from its price of $870 an ounce exactly 12 months earlier -- but the metal still remains well below its all-time high of $1227 reached in early December 2009. This nascent gold-price recovery reflects, most of all, an apparent resolution to Greece's sovereign debt, bringing with it a stronger European currency, a weaker U.S. dollar and a bounce in the ...

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Speech to the 4th Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit

GOLD SITUATION & OUTLOOK: How Monetary Policies, Investment Demand, Central Bank Interest, and Other Supply/Demand Factors Are Affecting the Market and the Metal's Future Price Shanghai, China I've been asked to talk about the Gold Situation and Outlook - in particular how monetary and fiscal policies, private-sector investment demand, renewed central bank respect for gold, and other supply-demand factors are changing the market - and have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation - ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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NO SURPRISES

Gold's retreat in recent days from its brief flirtation last week over $1000 an ounce was no surprise.  We warned in recent posts that the surge in secondary supply, particularly from Asian and Mideastern markets, and the worldwide collapse of fabrication demand left the price vulnerable -- and an easing of investor interest could bring a sizable correction in the yellow metal's price. Moreover, when everyone seems to be jumping on the gold train, nary a bear is to be seen, bulls are uniformly revising upward their price forecasts, and the financial press suddenly gets all hot and bothered, ...

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Gold Plunges — What’s Going On

Why was gold down so sharply today -- in the face reportedly record demand from investors for bullion coins and small bars? News that European central banks sold 7.6 tons of gold in the week ending October 10th has certainly been a heavy burden on the price and helps explain why the metal could not move higher last week and, if selling has continued, in the past few days. But, it has been central bank gold loans -- even more so than official gold sales -- that has really pulled the rug out from under gold. Gold loans by central banks are an alternative -- and invisible -- means of ...

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Gold on the Rollercoaster — Volatility to Continue

To be honest, no one really knows if the rescue package just approved by Congress will restore order to world financial markets – but whatever the impact, I feel confident about the future of gold. For now – and the near future – gold is caught up in a mass liquidation of virtually all assets. Expect “high-stakes” volatility in gold to continue as world financial markets size up the U.S. rescue package . . . and realize that America’s politicians have thrown them a lifeline tied to a leaky boat. Retail gold investors – real people like you and me – have a different view of the world ...

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