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A Quick Note on China’s Economy and Gold Market

Having just returned from another visit to China, where I had the opportunity to talk with a number of "insiders" in the Chinese gold community, I am more convinced than ever that the country will continue to have a profound influence on the world market and future price for years to come. Growth in aggregate demand from jewelry buyers, private investors, and the People's Bank of China will continue to outpace growth in total supply from mine production and secondary sources.  With both domestic supply and demand relatively price inelastic, the market will require a growing stream of ...

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Gold’s Long March Upward Continues

Despite gold's recent run up to new historic highs, I believe the yellow metal's price has far to go - both in future percentage appreciation and duration before the great gold bull market comes to its ultimate cyclical end. Right now, there is no evidence of a buying frenzy to suggest we are anywhere near a long-term top . . . but there are plenty of rock-solid fundamentals that suggest the market is healthy with plenty of room to move higher.  Moreover, the world economic and geopolitical environment remains very supportive - and seems likely to remain pro-gold for years to come. My ...

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Looking for a Snap Back

January has been a difficult month for gold, so much so that many market mavens - analysts and investors alike - are abandoning their bullish expectations. From its year-end 2010 price near $1,420 an ounce to its recent low just over $1,320 gold has so far shed some $100 - about seven percent.  Measured from its all-time high just over $1,432 in early December, the recent decline is less than eight percent.  Either way, in percentage terms, this doesn't amount to much of a correction in the metal's 10-year old bull market. Bright Fortunes In contrast to gold's naysayers and born-again ...

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GOLD: Seeing Past the Sell-Off

Gold has fallen more than $300 – about 30% – from its all-time high of US$1034 last March to its recent lows near $720.  And, since the beginning of the year, it is off about 12% – not too bad compared to most other asset classes.  Looking at the decline of the past week, most analysts are saying that gold has been pulled down by the drop in oil, the strong U.S. dollar, and an easing of inflation expectations. But, in my view, gold’s latest swift decent is a direct consequence of the unfolding global economic situation, the playing out of the credit crisis, and the onset of recession.  The ...

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