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All Aboard the Gold Train

Gold keeps barreling along like a Shanghai maglev train ahead of schedule, hitting new highs for the year -- and, increasingly, looking like it could break through it's all-time high any day now.  All this at a time when the dollar is surging against the euro and oil prices are under pressure. Not so long ago, market pundits were claiming a strong dollar and a weak oil price would have the opposite effect on gold, pushing the yellow metal lower.  Now, they're saying that risk-averse traders and investors are losing confidence in the euro and are running to the greenback and to gold as safe ...

A Brief Note on Gold ETFs

Bullion held in depositories on behalf of gold exchange-traded funds investors is at record levels . . .  and, in recent days, has been growing by leaps and bounds.  Worldwide total gold ETF holdings now exceed 1365 tons (42.6 million ounces). To put this number in perspective, ETFs now hold more gold than the Swiss central bank. Strikingly, gold held by ETFs now account for more than 40 percent of identifiable gold investment worldwide. ...

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Bipolar Gold

With the price of gold lurching first one way then the other, it looks like the market has been suffering from bipolar disorder.  I expect this split-personality behavior, characterized by extreme price volatility, to continue for some time to come with big swings up and down -- but, importantly, around a rising trend with support levels moving up step-wise over time. In short, gold is heading much higher, but not without more struggle and occasional disappointment for those looking for a speedy ascent.  Further out -- over the next year or two -- I have no doubt that gold will move to new ...

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A Conversation with Gold Historian Tim Green

Good friend and renown gold historian Tim Green has been researching and writing about gold for more than 40 years.  His latest book, The Ages of Gold, is the most comprehensive ever written on the history of mines, markets and the price over 6,000 years.  For those of us interested in gold today, there's much wisdom to be learned from the long view -- as you'll discover from my recent conversation with Tim. Jeff Nichols:  What struck you most in researching the 6,000 year history of gold? Tim Green:  The stability of its price over long periods, often centuries, which built up its ...

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The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold

The World Economic Crisis and the Outlook for Gold Speech to the 3rd Annual China Gold & Precious Metals Summit Shanghai, China Thank you Mr. Chairman for that flattering introduction and thank you to the conference organizers who have made it possible for us to exchange information and insights into the future of gold here in China and in the global marketplace. You should know that my presentation today will be posted on my website, NicholsOnGold.com, so you can easily check back in a few days, or a month, or a year – to review my analysis and my expectations for gold. A few ...

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The Deflation/Inflation Conumdrum

Gold was bound to rise once the selling abated . . . and each day it remains in $800+ territory, the technical picture and the yellow metal's good fortunes improve. ...

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GOLD — Deflation Hedge?

Gold's relative price strength in recent days -- in the face of plummeting U.S. consumer and producer prices, declining prices for oil and other (non-precious metals) commodities, and lower multi-year lows in world equity markets -- suggests that the yellow metal, technically speaking, may be building a solid base in the $770 to $800 range from which to embark on a sustainable advance into higher territory. Interestingly, gold has been outperforming silver and the PGMs, suggesting that investors and traders are differentiating among the metals, favoring gold as a monetary asset, safe haven, ...

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Jeff Nichols Interview on South Africa’s MoneyWeb Radio

Here's the text of my November 19th interview with Geoff Candy of South Africa's MoneyWeb Radio.  For a podcast of the interview click here.  The bottom line quote: "It wouldn't surprise me if in our lifetimes we never see gold back below $700/oz." GEOFF CANDY: Jeff Nichols joins us now. He is the MD of he American Precious Metals Advisors. Jeff, I was reading one of your blogs, NicholsOnGold.com, about where gold might go, and whether we're at an interesting turning point in gold. But there was also a report out by the World Gold Council, saying that third-quarter demand for gold is the ...

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GOLD — Nearing a Turning Point

Despite gold's latest weakness and the possibility of further breakdown, I believe we are nearing a turning point in the tenor and direction of the market.  Before long, gold will begin a new and sustainable upward march. Until then, with the yellow metal in the $700 to $730 range - and certainly at lower price levels - price-sensitive demand from key Asian and Middle Eastern markets should stabilize the market. With $1000 gold very likely in the next year - and still higher prices beyond - the risk/reward ratio is very much skewed to the plus side. Commodity Disinvestment Running Its ...

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GOLD: Seeing Past the Sell-Off

Gold has fallen more than $300 – about 30% – from its all-time high of US$1034 last March to its recent lows near $720.  And, since the beginning of the year, it is off about 12% – not too bad compared to most other asset classes.  Looking at the decline of the past week, most analysts are saying that gold has been pulled down by the drop in oil, the strong U.S. dollar, and an easing of inflation expectations. But, in my view, gold’s latest swift decent is a direct consequence of the unfolding global economic situation, the playing out of the credit crisis, and the onset of recession.  The ...

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