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A Rollercoaster Ride for Gold Investors

In recent weeks, gold prices have been on a wild rollercoaster ride, lurching one way then the other, driven mostly by uncertain and highly volatile expectations - expectations about the likelihood and possible consequences of U.S. military intervention in Syria as well as expectations about prospective U.S. monetary policy as the next Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting (September 17th-18th) draws near. With events in the Middle East remaining uncertain, with Russia's own diplomatic offensive leading to who knows where, and with the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee closing in, ...

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A Brief Note on CENTRAL BANK GOLD

Gold is a now seen as a bargain by some central-bank reserve managers who are buying more at low price levels -- but don't expect central-bank gold demand to quickly send the price sharply higher. Russia and China have very likely been scale-down buyers in recent days. Both have been buying with some regularity for the past few years. It's now in their best interest to acquire as much as they can at low price levels but avoiding quantities large enough to send prices quickly higher. Buying to hold for and bequeath to future generations -- and, importantly, to advance their own strategic ...

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Excerpts from Interview with South Africa’s MoneyWeb

MoneyWeb: We saw that astonishing decline in the gold price and in gold stocks yesterday. The biggest one-day drop in the price of bullion since 1980 and it has fallen about 13% since Thursday. ?   Gold’s price is down nearly 25% since last October. We are far off those all-time highs of $1,900/oz back in 2011, with the gold price currently trading at $1 382.63. We welcome Jeffrey Nichols, MD of American Precious Metals Advisors to the programme.  Jeffrey, you are calling the latest moves in the gold market “insanity”. Why? JEFFREY NICHOLS: Absolutely – because this past week’s sharp ...

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FUELING GOLD’S FUTURE ASCENT

Gold has certainly taken a beating in recent days, giving up all of the gains attained during the Cyprus crisis -- and down nearly 20 percent from its all-time high back in September 2011. And, now having suffered two consecutive quarterly declines for the first time since early 2001, some analysts and investors are abandoning the yellow metal, proclaiming that gold's decade-long bull market has run its course. I'm no "gold bug" – but I couldn't disagree more . . . based on solid reasoning and objective analysis. Short-Term Shock Therapy What the gold market needs to move higher is a ...

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GOLD BEARS BEWARE

Gold bears have been a gleeful group of late, pointing to the recent decline in gold exchange-traded fund holdings as evidence of investor disinterest in the yellow metal.  Gold bears also see the market's rather lackluster performance over the past year and a half - and the failure of prices to move higher - as further evidence the decade-long bull market has run its course. Yes, gold has retreated some 20 percent from its September 2011 all-time high (near $1,924 an ounce) to its subsequent low (just over $1,520). Yes, Gold ETFs have seen some substantial and high-profile withdrawals in ...

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GOLDEN JUNCTURE

With the Greek drama taking an intermission and the euro strengthening at the U.S. dollar’s expense, it looks like gold wants to move higher – and, quite possibly, it has enough oomph to break through strong technical overhead resistance as we approach and possibly exceed $1,800 an ounce. As I have pointed out in past NicholsOnGold commentaries, it is important to distinguish the forces and players that drive gold prices in the short term – measured in days, weeks, and sometimes months – from those that determine the longer-term trend and average price over many years. Short-Term ...

Un-Seasonal Expectations

Despite the winding down of East Asia's Lunar New Year gold buying binge, I expect the yellow metal's price will continue to move up in the weeks ahead - but not without some struggle as gold works to reestablish upward momentum and renewed credibility. Historically, with the arrival of the Lunar New Year, gold demand and the metal's price typically enter a seasonally weak period -- but the typical seasonality is no longer a reliable guide to gold price prospects. The usually weak summer months this past year saw gold run up to new historic highs above $1,900 an ounce . . . and, contrary ...

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World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold – Recovery and Resurrection

Gold is coming to life again - and looks poised to move higher in the weeks and months ahead.  Having fallen precipitously from its all-time high just over $1,923 an ounce in early September to a recent low near $1,540 in early October, a peak-to-trough correction of some 20 percent, gold has been, of late, range-bound, trading between $1,640 and $1,680. Having moved to the top of this range and even slightly higher, I sense gold is just now resuming its long march upward, a march that could, before long, carry the price to the $1,850 region and perhaps even to its historic peak of $1,923 ...

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Gold – Just an Innocent Bystander

"At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working their way higher once again." That was my view published on NicholsOnGold.com in late August. Gold has certainly taken a dive - and could stumble further in the days immediately ahead - but I think we will see the yellow metal begin its comeback sooner rather than later, possible in the next few days. This summer we raised our ...

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