Gold-Price Weakness: More March Madness?

Frankly, I’ve been surprised by the recent decline in the price of gold.  I expected a stronger finish to the first quarter with gold prices somewhat higher – possibly even breaking out above the $1,400 an ounce level by the end of March. Instead, gold prices have softened considerably over the past couple of weeks – off nearly $100 an ounce from its mid-March highs and down three percent in just the past week.  On a more positive note, gold is still up 7.5 percent for the year to date. With gold now hovering around the 200-day moving average and short-term momentum now moving into ...

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A Quick Note on Gold Price Prospects

We are advising clients and subscribers to NicholsOnGold to expect another up-week for gold . . . driven largely by geopolitical anxiety over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the likely outcome of Sunday’s referendum on the future of Crimea. Gold is once again performing its historical function as a hedge and insurance policy against geopolitical risks and the vulnerability of other asset classes including equities and bonds.  Gold is also performing well vis-a-vis the dollar and most other currencies.   ...

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The Russian Bear – Bullish for Gold

So far, the gold market has largely ignored the East-West clash over Ukraine and control of Crimea. With gold recently trading mostly within the $1,340–to-$1,350 range, we’d guess the Ukraine/Crimea crisis has added no more than $10 or $15 an ounce to the yellow metal’s price.  But there is the potential for larger, more dramatic price movement in the weeks ahead. For the next few days, world financial markets will be anticipating the March 16th referendum in which Crimea will likely vote to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation.  While this may already be reflected in the ...

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Russia Drives Gold

Russian saber-rattling sent gold over $1,350 an ounce earlier this week, its highest price in four months.  But, contrary to many press reports, it was neither safe-haven demand nor physical buying that fueled gold’s short-lived price advance. Instead, it was institutional speculators and short-term traders – among them the trading desks at some of the gold-dealing banks – who rushed reflexively to buy gold futures and other “paper gold” derivatives . . . and then sold quickly to take profits as the crisis seemed to abate.  Meanwhile, buyers in China and India, the two largest physical ...

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Gold Mine Production: Who Cares?

Gold-mine output and production costs may mean a lot to gold miners and to investors in gold-mining equities, but should they mean a lot to the rest of us? Total global gold-mine output (primary supply) will make headlines this year, hitting a new record with “reported” annual production just over 3000 tons (about 96.5 million ounces). Actual mine production is probably somewhat higher taking into account unreported output from informal producers and under-reporting by China and possibly a few other countries. The continuing growth in worldwide mine production – even in the past year ...

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A Rollercoaster Ride for Gold Investors

In recent weeks, gold prices have been on a wild rollercoaster ride, lurching one way then the other, driven mostly by uncertain and highly volatile expectations - expectations about the likelihood and possible consequences of U.S. military intervention in Syria as well as expectations about prospective U.S. monetary policy as the next Federal Reserve policy-setting meeting (September 17th-18th) draws near. With events in the Middle East remaining uncertain, with Russia's own diplomatic offensive leading to who knows where, and with the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee closing in, ...

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A Brief Note on CENTRAL BANK GOLD

Gold is a now seen as a bargain by some central-bank reserve managers who are buying more at low price levels -- but don't expect central-bank gold demand to quickly send the price sharply higher. Russia and China have very likely been scale-down buyers in recent days. Both have been buying with some regularity for the past few years. It's now in their best interest to acquire as much as they can at low price levels but avoiding quantities large enough to send prices quickly higher. Buying to hold for and bequeath to future generations -- and, importantly, to advance their own strategic ...

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Excerpts from Interview with South Africa’s MoneyWeb

MoneyWeb: We saw that astonishing decline in the gold price and in gold stocks yesterday. The biggest one-day drop in the price of bullion since 1980 and it has fallen about 13% since Thursday. ?   Gold’s price is down nearly 25% since last October. We are far off those all-time highs of $1,900/oz back in 2011, with the gold price currently trading at $1 382.63. We welcome Jeffrey Nichols, MD of American Precious Metals Advisors to the programme.  Jeffrey, you are calling the latest moves in the gold market “insanity”. Why? JEFFREY NICHOLS: Absolutely – because this past week’s sharp ...

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FUELING GOLD’S FUTURE ASCENT

Gold has certainly taken a beating in recent days, giving up all of the gains attained during the Cyprus crisis -- and down nearly 20 percent from its all-time high back in September 2011. And, now having suffered two consecutive quarterly declines for the first time since early 2001, some analysts and investors are abandoning the yellow metal, proclaiming that gold's decade-long bull market has run its course. I'm no "gold bug" – but I couldn't disagree more . . . based on solid reasoning and objective analysis. Short-Term Shock Therapy What the gold market needs to move higher is a ...

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GOLD BEARS BEWARE

Gold bears have been a gleeful group of late, pointing to the recent decline in gold exchange-traded fund holdings as evidence of investor disinterest in the yellow metal.  Gold bears also see the market's rather lackluster performance over the past year and a half - and the failure of prices to move higher - as further evidence the decade-long bull market has run its course. Yes, gold has retreated some 20 percent from its September 2011 all-time high (near $1,924 an ounce) to its subsequent low (just over $1,520). Yes, Gold ETFs have seen some substantial and high-profile withdrawals in ...

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