GOLD IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD

(Excerpts from my speech to the 7th annual CHINA GOLD & PRECIOUS METALS SUMMIT, Shanghai, China, December 5th through December 7th, 2012) Gold in recent months has been stuck in a trading range between $1675 and $1750 an ounce - disappointing many bullish investors and quite a few gold-market analysts (like myself) who had expected the yellow metal to be ending the year approaching - or even exceeding - its all-time high-water mark near $1924 recorded back in September of 2011. Recent attempts to rally higher have been thwarted by stepped-up speculative selling and softer physical ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

U.S. Monetary Policy: Good News for Gold Investors

We have long expected further monetary easing by the U.S. central bank . . . but this past Thursday's news from the Fed was more than most gold investors could have imagined or hoped for.  In reaction to persistent recession-like conditions and continued high unemployment in the U.S. economy, the Fed is now embarking on even more reflationary - and ultimately inflationary - monetary policies. In a statement following Thursday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed said "If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the committee will continue its ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

The Fed Speaks . . . and Gold Listens

Gold rallied this past week, showing some of its old spunk, first breaking through overhead resistance around $1,625 an ounce . . . and then piercing through the $1,650 level on Wednesday's news from the Fed that more monetary stimulus could be in the cards. As in recent months, gold's price action has very much reflected buying and selling by institutional traders and speculators, driven by high-frequency program trading that rely heavily on momentum indicators and technical signals, as well as expectations of prospective U.S. monetary policy, Eurozone sentiment, and the latest move in the ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold: Treading Water in Turbulent Seas

Gold has been somewhat of a disappointment to many analysts and investors who, as of a few months ago, were still anticipating higher prices again this year.  But the year is not over, nor is gold's long-term secular bull market. With eleven years of advancing prices already chalked up on the scoreboard, the long-term secular upswing has five-to-ten years of life still ahead - and maybe more.  Along the way, expect continuing volatility, periods of consolidation, and occasional corrections, corrections sometimes so severe that some will prematurely and incorrectly call the game over. We ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

GOLDEN JUNCTURE

With the Greek drama taking an intermission and the euro strengthening at the U.S. dollar’s expense, it looks like gold wants to move higher – and, quite possibly, it has enough oomph to break through strong technical overhead resistance as we approach and possibly exceed $1,800 an ounce. As I have pointed out in past NicholsOnGold commentaries, it is important to distinguish the forces and players that drive gold prices in the short term – measured in days, weeks, and sometimes months – from those that determine the longer-term trend and average price over many years. Short-Term ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold Sizzles

In case you hadn't noticed, gold prices have been surging to new all-time high rising to $1,878.90 an ounce in intraday trading on Friday, August 19th. Whether gold continues to skyrocket, settles into a new trading range around recent levels, or plummets as high prices discourage buyers and encourage profit-takers is anyone's guess. At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold’s Long March Upward Continues

Despite gold's recent run up to new historic highs, I believe the yellow metal's price has far to go - both in future percentage appreciation and duration before the great gold bull market comes to its ultimate cyclical end. Right now, there is no evidence of a buying frenzy to suggest we are anywhere near a long-term top . . . but there are plenty of rock-solid fundamentals that suggest the market is healthy with plenty of room to move higher.  Moreover, the world economic and geopolitical environment remains very supportive - and seems likely to remain pro-gold for years to come. My ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Dog Days of Summer: Cooling Off for Gold Unlikely

The days and weeks ahead could be tumultuous for gold with the yellow metal's price primed to move one way or the other depending on news from European finance ministers, the European Central Bank, the Greek Parliament and, last but not least, the Fed's FOMC policy-setting committee and Chairman Bernanke's news conference later this week. Technically, gold remains range bound with good support, as we saw last week, between $1515-$1522 and overhead resistance in the $1545-$1555 range.  A break out in either direction, perhaps triggered by news of a more fundamental nature, could signal a ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.

Gold & Silver: The Long March Upward Resumes

Just a few weeks ago, gold and silver prices were soaring, almost beyond belief.  A growing chorus of investors, analysts, and financial journalists opined that the "bubble" in precious metals prices would soon pop - and many predicted an imminent long-term bear market was just around the corner. And, when precious metals prices tumbled - gold from its all-time intraday high of $1,576.50 on May 1st to an intraday low of $1,463.20 just four days later and silver from $49.59 on April 28th to $32.44 a couple of weeks later - pundits were quick to declare that the bubble burst . . . and many ...

Please Login or Subscribe to view this Commentary.