Gold: Moving On Up . . . Again

The snap-back in the U.S. dollar gold price this past week to $1,100 an ounce may mark the beginning of a new upward phase in the metal's long-term bull market. Neither the announcement of prospective IMF gold sales nor the U.S. Federal Reserve's quarter-point rise in its discount rate had more than a fleeting affect on precious metals markets . . . and neither will derail gold's ascent to new record highs later this year. Gold's own positive fundamentals, the high level of investor interest in key geographic markets, and global monetary economic developments promise to push the yellow ...

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Gold: Long-Term Fundamentals Remain Promising

Regardless of the near-term prospects for gold, the long-term fundamentals promise substantial appreciation later this year and beyond. We remain firm in our conviction that gold prices will touch or surpass $1,500 in 2010 - and continue to move higher in subsequent years. Opportunity Knocks Gold at recent price levels offer investors and savers without a "core" position in the physical metal an opportunity to buy insurance against the very real possibility of future stock and bond market declines, accelerating inflation and a shrinking dollar, and turmoil in U.S. and world financial ...

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Gold, the Dollar, and the Economy

It's now nearly two months since gold registered an all-time high of $1,227 an ounce, following a five-month run during which the metal rose more than $300 an ounce.  From a long-term perspective, this is a remarkable 380 percent trough-to-peak gain from its early 2001 cyclical low point of $255. Gold's strength last year reflected a number of factors: (1) record worldwide private investment demand (thanks, in part, to rising inflation expectations, pent-up demand from China, and the popularity of new gold investment vehicles in various markets); (2) net official purchases (after two ...

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Hong Kong Speech: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Gold Outlook Asia 2009 Conference Hong Kong I’ve been asked to talk about the world economic and financial crisis – and the implications for gold.In addition, I want to discuss important changes in the official sector and structural developments in the private investment sphere that have important implications for the price of gold over the next few years. The place to begin, however, is with the U.S. and global macroeconomic situation – past, present, and future. This is an especially appropriate topic for an American economist since it has been, in large measure, America’s ...

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INDIA SPEECH: Gold Market Situation & Outlook

Speech to the Sixth Annual India International Gold Convention Goa, India Jeffrey Nichols, Managing Director, American Precious Metals Advisors Thank you, Mr. Chairman for your kind introduction . . . and many thanks also to the conference organizers for inviting me to participate in this prestigious gathering. It is a great honor to be here today, not only to share my views – but to learn from you, and make many new friends in the Indian Gold Community. A few weeks ago, in preparation for today’s presentation, I asked the conference organizer what I should talk about.He said, I should ...

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Official Sector Gold Policies – At a Turning Point

I believe we are now at a key turning point in the modern history of gold as an official reserve asset – a turning point that is very propitious for the metal’s price in years to come. Central banks attitudes with respect to gold are becoming increasingly positive.After years of persistent net sales by central banks in the aggregate, the official sector may soon become a net purchaser of gold from the market. ...

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KEY GOLD-PRICE DRIVERS

As clients know, we remain “extremely optimistic” on the gold-price outlook -- but, unlike many other bullish analysts, we believe the metal’s ascent will take several years to reach its next long-term cyclical peak. In the meantime, expect high volatility and a difficult climb, fraught with sharp reversals along the way that will, at times, cause some observers to wonder if the market has already topped out. Ultimately, gold will most likely climb into the US$2000 to $3000 range – but it could go even higher given the right confluence of economic and political developments . . . or if a ...

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INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND THE PRICE OF GOLD

From a long-term perspective, gold is a bargain at recent prices in the $900 to $930 an ounce . . . and will remain so even as it begins to move into a higher trading range. Recent gold-market developments and technical price action -- along with broader economic and financial-market developments -- suggest gold is bracing for a resumption of its long march upward and a retest of its historic high in the months ahead. First and foremost, the bullish outlook for gold rests on the increasing likelihood of accelerating U.S. inflation in the years to come -- and an associated unprecedented ...

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FED EASING AND GOLD PROSPECTS

This week's news from the U.S. Federal Reserve promising massive quantitative easing in the months ahead greatly increases our confidence in the long-term bullish outlook for gold and silver.  Since the first recorded use of currency by King Croesus some 2,500 years ago, there has NEVER been a rapid increase in the supply of money that has not, within a few years, been followed by an acceleration of inflation.  Why should the current experience be any different!! Our forecast that gold will reach a cyclical high over $2500 and silver will exceed $50 an ounce in the next few years looks ...

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GOLD: STILL VULNERABLE

Gold's tumble in recent days, now about 9.5 percent from its late-February high just briefly over $1000 an ounce, is no surprise to readers of NicholsOnGold.com.  Although we remain bullish for the long-term and foresee more than a doubling of the gold price in the next few years, the immediate picture is less rosy . . . and the yellow metal remains vulnerable to further short-term selling. A number of factors have contributed to gold's decline in the past week and may remain influential in the weeks ahead: •    First and foremost, the market has had to absorb an absolutely fantastic ...

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