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CHINA GOLD: MORE THAN MEETS THE EYE

The gold world has lately been abuzz with news and speculation about the true volumes of gold supply, private-sector demand, imports, and central-bank reserve accumulation. In recent weeks, every gold analyst and pundit seems to be jumping on the bandwagon.  But this is nothing new for our clients and readers of NicholsOnGold. For several years now, we have suggested that China's actual annual gold production, consumption, and imports have been running considerably higher than that suggested by official and semi-official statistics coming out of the Asian giant - and that China's central ...

World Economic Trends and the Future Price of Gold

I recently had the pleasure and privilege of speaking again this year at the China Gold & Precious Metals Summit in Shanghai and to several private seminars organized by clients elsewhere across China.  Here's the text of my presentation: First My Forecast Forecasters, whether of the economy, or the stock market, or the gold price are frequently wrong . . . but we are never in doubt.  It is up to you - the investor - to listen, evaluate, doubt, and make your own decisions about gold's future price and the role the metal might play in your own investment portfolio and personal savings ...

Gold Sizzles

In case you hadn't noticed, gold prices have been surging to new all-time high rising to $1,878.90 an ounce in intraday trading on Friday, August 19th. Whether gold continues to skyrocket, settles into a new trading range around recent levels, or plummets as high prices discourage buyers and encourage profit-takers is anyone's guess. At some point, however, we will see a correction, perhaps a sizable one.  After all, even strong bull markets never move up in straight lines.  I would not be surprised to see gold stumble - falling back $100, $200, or even $300 - before prices begin working ...

U.S. POLITICS, ECONOMIC POLICY, AND THE FUTURE PRICE OF GOLD

Gold thrives on political and economic uncertainty . . . and we've got plenty of that now that the Republican Party has seized control of the House of Representatives and narrowed the Democratic majority in the Senate.  What's more, the U.S. Federal Reserve, America's central bank, is adding to the uncertain political and economic landscape as it embarks on another large dose of monetary stimulus. Without a doubt, the new arithmetic on Capitol Hill -- along with the Fed's recent policy shift -- reinforces the bullish case for gold and raises my confidence that gold prices will rise to $2000 ...

GOLD — LOOKS LIKE A STEAL!

Despite reports to the contrary, gold looks like a steal.  Even if we see further price weakness in the days and weeks ahead, we stand by our forecast that gold will again hit its record high of $1,227 an ounce by midyear and will reach $1,500 by year-end 2010.  We do, however, also expect continued volatility with big swings in both directions around an upward trend this year and beyond. For one thing, we think the best of the economic news is now behind us, certainly with regard to U.S. inflation rates, consumer spending, and industrial production, is now behind us -- and that indicators ...

2010: Gold & Silver Expectations in Brief

Gold has enjoyed a long and enviable climb, rising some 380 percent from a cyclical low near $255 an ounce in April 2001 to an all-time high just over $1,225 in early December, 2009.  Although the bull market will celebrate its 9th birthday this year, it still has a long way to go, both in magnitude and duration. I expect the yellow metal will hit $1,500 an ounce  - or higher - during the New Year, a gain of more than 35 percent from its December 31st close. And looking further ahead, gold's bull market will likely continue for another few years, carrying the metal to a cyclical peak of ...

GOLD: STILL VULNERABLE

Gold's tumble in recent days, now about 9.5 percent from its late-February high just briefly over $1000 an ounce, is no surprise to readers of NicholsOnGold.com.  Although we remain bullish for the long-term and foresee more than a doubling of the gold price in the next few years, the immediate picture is less rosy . . . and the yellow metal remains vulnerable to further short-term selling. A number of factors have contributed to gold's decline in the past week and may remain influential in the weeks ahead: •    First and foremost, the market has had to absorb an absolutely fantastic ...

All Aboard the Gold Train

Gold keeps barreling along like a Shanghai maglev train ahead of schedule, hitting new highs for the year -- and, increasingly, looking like it could break through it's all-time high any day now.  All this at a time when the dollar is surging against the euro and oil prices are under pressure. Not so long ago, market pundits were claiming a strong dollar and a weak oil price would have the opposite effect on gold, pushing the yellow metal lower.  Now, they're saying that risk-averse traders and investors are losing confidence in the euro and are running to the greenback and to gold as safe ...

Gold — After the Fall

Gold has fallen more than $250 from its record high this past March to its recent low last week.  Most analysts are saying that gold has been pulled down by the drop in oil, the bounce in the U.S. dollar, and an easing of inflation expectations. But, in my view, gold’s swift decent in the past few weeks is a direct consequence of the unfolding global credit crisis.  In short, gold has been an innocent bystander to the financial hurricane hitting Wall Street and global markets. The yellow metal’s own positive fundamentals – and even its role as a safe haven in turbulent financial seas – ...

Jeff Nichols Talks About Gold

Gold’s recent strength has been fueled principally by a surge in investment buying.  Meanwhile, positive market fundamentals – having to do with trends in mine production, secondary supply, and fabrication demand – have played a supporting role in gold’s recent strong performance. As important as it is to take a periodic statistical snapshot of gold supply and demand, price developments in the short-to-medium term have less to do with these fundamentals and more to do with market sentiment, monetary policy and inflation trends, geopolitical events, and the resultant changes in investment ...