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The Dollar Reigns Supreme . . . But For How Long?

Having failed in its attempt earlier this month to move above $1,300 an ounce, gold is once again looking for sustainable support under the technically and psychologically important $1,200 level. How quickly things can change in world financial markets: Just a few weeks ago it looked like gold might break-out on the upside on the back of bullish geopolitical and global economic developments – and establish a new floor price around $1,300 an ounce. But, having failed in its attempt to move up, we now wonder (along with what must be a majority of gold-market analysts and participants) if gold ...

GOLD: Sound & Fury . . . But What’s It All Mean?

Gold-price volatility so far this year has been a reflection of short-term speculative activity by a relatively small group of hedge funds and other institutional traders taking relatively large positions in “paper” markets.   In paper markets, no physical gold actually changes hands.  Instead, trading of futures and forward contracts, as well as other IOUs between large dealers and traders, governs much of the short-term day-to-day (and even more so much of the intraday) price fluctuations. Meanwhile, “physical" demand continues to grow over time — with buying from the gold-friendly ...

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Gold: Pregnant with Possibility

This year, 2015, could be the year for gold to shine. Having recorded its all-time high above $1920 an ounce in September 2011, the metal has been in decline now for nearly three and a half years and, consequently, its allure as a reliable hedge asset and store of value has been tarnished. But while gold as been scorned by many Westerners – principally American and European institutional investors and short-term speculators – it has remained in favor most everywhere else. Long-term investors and savers across much of Asia – especially China and India, by far the largest and most ...

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2015: A Very Good Year for Gold

After some three years of disappointment, 2015 promises to be a good year for gold investors. While the near-term price outlook remains uncertain, I feel fairly confident that gold will be considerably higher at this time next year – and on its way to new historic highs in the years ahead. A number of factors, some interrelated, will drive gold higher. ...

Gold: Any Day Now . . .

Any day now, gold could find itself in a sustainable long-term uptrend – or not. What remains true is that near-term gold-price prospects remain uncertain with the continuing possibility of sizeable price moves in either – or even both – directions. What also remains true is the high probability that the yellow metal’s price will be considerably higher at this time next year – with a sustainable long-term upswing already underway. ...

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A Brief Note on Swiss Gold Referendum

In a national referendum planned for later this month, Swiss voters will be deciding whether or not the country’s central bank should begin buying more gold. Switzerland already owns some 1040 tons (about 33 million ounces), placing it in the top ten holders of central bank gold reserves behind the United States (with 8,133.5 tons), Germany (with 3,387.1 tons), the IMF (with 2,814 tons), Italy (2,451.8 tons), France (2,435.4 tons), China (with undisclosed holdings), and Russia (with over 1,100 tons). The so-called “Save Our Swiss Gold” proposal, if supported by more than 50 percent of ...

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Gold: Short-Term Risk vs. Long-Term Opportunity

Autumn has been a cruel season for gold investors. In contrast to some anticipated seasonal bump up, the yellow metal’s price has been driven lower by bearish technical indicators and excessive negative sentiment among a small number of large-scale institutional speculators – bullion banks, hedge funds, program traders and the like – trading mostly in futures and over-the-counter “paper” markets for very short-term gains while remaining indifferent to the metal's long-term bullish fundamentals. Despite this dismal performance and continuing bearishness among many traders, gold should still ...

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Is NOW a Good Time to Own Gold?

As a business economist and gold-market analyst, I am frequently asked about the economic outlook and investment-market prospects.  Most of all, clients and friends ask “Is now a good time to OWN gold?” My answer is always the same: NOW is always a good time to own gold. Importantly, we own the metal because, over time, its inclusion in a typical savings and investment portfolio provides a variety of benefits: ...

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Macroeconomic Prospects and the Price of Gold

September is typically a seasonally strong month for gold . . . but the markets have once again surprised gold optimists with another breakdown in the yellow metal’s price.  Contributing to gold’s September price retreat has been a modest appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the British pound and other European currencies.  This episode of dollar strength – and gold-price weakness – has been driven my several factors: For one thing, rising expectations among some currency traders that Scotland might vote to separate from the United Kingdom when the Scots go to the polls later this ...

A Quick Note on Gold Price Prospects

We are advising clients and subscribers to NicholsOnGold to expect another up-week for gold . . . driven largely by geopolitical anxiety over the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the likely outcome of Sunday’s referendum on the future of Crimea. ...

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