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Interest Rates, Inflation, and Trumpian Troubles Point Up for Gold

Gold prices of late have been testing support just under the market, if you will, preparing for a healthy rally into higher territory. As I see it, a relatively small group of hedge funds and institutional speculators have been calling the tune for gold, trading the recent range, buying on dips, selling on rallies, and gradually adding to their physical holdings – a behavioral pattern we expect will continue within a rising trading range – at least until a price well above the $1300 an ounce level is well established. Contributing to support under the market, price-sensitive Asian ...

Gold Bulls: Take Comfort in the Long Term

Last year’s big surprise in the world of gold was the failure of prices to move higher. Even strong physical demand for the metal and election-related uncertainties following Trump’s surprising victory could not underpin a sustainable rise in the price. Instead, expectations of higher interest rates, an appreciating dollar, and record-high equity prices held the yellow metal down. Now, it seems gold may have finally turned a corner . . . with prices for the yellow metal beginning their long march upward, a long march that will eventually carry the metal to new historic highs. But, even ...

Gold: Faulty Expectations

Contrary to expectations, ours and nearly everyone else’s who pay attention to the price of gold, the yellow metal has, since Election Day, shed nearly 15 percent of its value in U.S. dollars. According to the pundits who pay attention to such matters, the election of Donald Trump should have pulled the rug out from under stock prices, hammered the dollar against other major currencies, and propelled gold sharply higher. But once again the pundits have been proven wrong: Stock prices on Wall Street have zoomed to new historic highs and gold has, once again, disappointed. Despite this ...

The Prospects for Gold: Does the Election Really Matter?

Regardless of who moves into the White House this coming January, gold prices are set to zoom in the years ahead – in my view, more than doubling during the next President’s term. What many Western investors – particularly Americans – still fail to realize is that investment demand for gold knows no boarders. Indeed, it will be the growth in physical demand for gold – from India and greater China – that drives gold prices to unheard of heights over the next several years. Political and social developments – especially the growth in middle classes with investible incomes in these ...

Flash Crash?

Gold has once again surprised. This time, news from “outside the market” set in motion a chain reaction that knocked gold for a loop. First, the British confirmed the country was withdrawing from the European Union . . . and sooner than most had expected. This triggered an instant devaluation of the British pound and a corresponding rise in the U.S. dollar in world currency markets. Not surprisingly, as the dollar rose, gold took it on the chin, as it most often does when the U.S. currency appreciates. At the same time, contributing to the dollar’s recent appreciation has been a ...

Gold and the Interest-Rate Dis-Connect

I don’t like to make short-term predictions about the price of gold – people who do are usually very lucky or very wrong. But times they are changing . . . and we are entering a new phase in gold-price action where expectations of Fed interest-rate policy will become less important and other, more bullish, gold-price drivers come to the fore. Just look at the past few weeks or even, for that matter, the past year: The day-to-day, week-to-week, fluctuations in the price of gold have been almost entirely a reflection of the gold-market’s expectations of prospective Federal Reserve ...

My Recent Interview with Mine.com

I recently sat down with Mining.com to talk about gold and the outlook for the yellow metal.  Here's a summary of that conversation:   Jeffrey Nichols has been a precious metal economist for over 25 years, so if there’s someone who knows every nook and cranny of the gold market, that is him. Like many others, including American lawyer and author Jim Rickards and RBC Capital Markets, he has been predicting that the price of gold is going rise before January 1, 2017, especially taking into account that it has been up by 25% for the past six months. “This is far better than the major ...

Gold: Day of Reckoning Ahead

Although the price of gold is up some 25 percent so far this year, the metal still remains 30 percent below its all-time high of $1,924 registered in September 2011 – so there’s still plenty of room overhead for the price of gold to move higher – as I think it will – without excessive resistance. I’m no gold bug – but I have been “super bullish” on gold for the past few years. Now, I think the yellow metal’s day of reckoning is quickly approaching. A decisive break above $1,400 an ounce could be just around the corner – and, to my mind, would signal the start of gold’s next major ...

What’s Driving Gold — It Ain’t Interest Rates

Although gold prices have had some difficulty sustaining recent gains above the $1365 per ounce level, the metal has nevertheless registered just about the best performance across virtually all investment classes over the past six or seven months. Over the past half year, the metal has rallied some 25 to 30 percent – far better than the major stock-market averages that have received more favorable attention from the financial press for reaching new all-time highs. The reason I mention this is that gold has been trading inversely to equities – and, consequently, the yellow metal stands to ...

Brexit or Not: Gold to Soar, Eventually!

Whatever the outcome of this Thursday’s “Brexit” referendum on the United Kingdom’s future to stay in or to exit from the European Union, gold prices are set to move significantly higher during this year’s second half. Should the British reject devolution, gold prices might briefly move a little lower – even though, in the days running up to Thursday’s referendum, the financial markets may already have “priced in” a no-vote. By contrast, a majority vote to exit the European Union would likely create years of uncertainly over the terms of the prospective divorce agreement – and ...