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Latest Commentaries

A Brief Note on Swiss Gold Referendum

In a national referendum planned for later this month, Swiss voters will be deciding whether or not the country’s central bank should begin buying more gold.

Switzerland already owns some 1040 tons (about 33 million ounces), placing it in the top ten holders of central bank gold reserves behind the United States (with 8,133.5 tons), Germany (with 3,387.1 tons), the IMF (with 2,814 tons), Italy (2,451.8 tons), France (2,435.4 tons), China (with undisclosed holdings), and Russia (with over 1,100 tons).

The so-called “Save Our Swiss Gold” proposal, if supported by more than 50 percent of those voting, would prohibit the Swiss National Bank (the SNB) from selling any of its current gold reserves.  But, more importantly, it would require the SNB to hold at least 20 percent of its official reserve asset in the form of gold.  Currently, gold accounts for only 7.8 percent of the central bank’s total official reserves.

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Gold: Short-Term Risk vs. Long-Term Opportunity

Autumn has been a cruel season for gold investors. In contrast to some anticipated seasonal bump up, the yellow metal’s price has been driven lower by bearish technical indicators and excessive negative sentiment among a small number of large-scale institutional speculators – bullion banks, hedge funds, program traders and the like – trading mostly ...

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Is NOW a Good Time to Own Gold?

As a business economist and gold-market analyst, I am frequently asked about the economic outlook and investment-market prospects.  Most of all, clients and friends ask “Is now a good time to OWN gold?” My answer is always the same: NOW is always a good time to own gold. Importantly, we own the metal because, over time, its inclusion in a ...

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Macroeconomic Prospects and the Price of Gold

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September is typically a seasonally strong month for gold . . . but the markets have once again surprised gold optimists with another breakdown in the yellow metal’s price.  Contributing to gold’s September price retreat has been a modest appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the British pound and other European currencies.  This episode of ...

GOLD: Balancing on a Knife Edge

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It’s time to fess up:  Over the past week or two, I’ve been reluctant to say much about gold’s short-term price prospects.  Now, it seems to me that prices are set up for a big move . . . but in what direction?  That is the question. Gold markets can no longer count on rising geopolitical risk to gin up prices.  Lately, gold has largely ignored ...

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India: Propitious Times for Gold Ahead

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We are soon entering a propitious period for gold in the annual calendar.  Historically, prices have moved higher as gold traders and buyers returned from their summer holidays. In reality it has been the approaching Indian holiday, wedding, and agricultural harvest seasons that have boosted gold demand and supported higher prices in world ...

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