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Macroeconomic Prospects and the Price of Gold

September is typically a seasonally strong month for gold . . . but the markets have once again surprised gold optimists with another breakdown in the yellow metal’s price. 

Contributing to gold’s September price retreat has been a modest appreciation of the U.S. dollar vis-à-vis the British pound and other European currencies.  This episode of dollar strength – and gold-price weakness – has been driven my several factors:

  • For one thing, rising expectations among some currency traders that Scotland might vote to separate from the United Kingdom when the Scots go to the polls later this week has damaged the British pound.
  • And, by lending emotional support to separatist movements elsewhere in Europe, the possibility of Scottish devolution has weighed on the euro as well.
  • For another thing, a growing number of Fed watchers and gold traders have come to believe recent signs of a recovering U.S. economy might give the U.S. central bank leeway to advance the timing of next year’s widely anticipated upward adjustment in short-term interest rates.
  • At the same time, with the European economies stumbling anew, the European Central Bank has recently lowered euro interest rates – and, to the euro’s further detriment, there has even been some talk of an ECB program of quantitative easing later this year or next.

GOLD: Balancing on a Knife Edge


It’s time to fess up:  Over the past week or two, I’ve been reluctant to say much about gold’s short-term price prospects.  Now, it seems to me that prices are set up for a big move . . . but in what direction?  That is the question. Gold markets can no longer count on rising geopolitical risk to gin up prices.  Lately, gold has largely ignored ...

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India: Propitious Times for Gold Ahead


We are soon entering a propitious period for gold in the annual calendar.  Historically, prices have moved higher as gold traders and buyers returned from their summer holidays. In reality it has been the approaching Indian holiday, wedding, and agricultural harvest seasons that have boosted gold demand and supported higher prices in world ...

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GOLD Explained: A Brief Note on Recent Market Action


Gold's failure to sustain its recent price gains, gains achieved over the past few weeks, triggered a wave of computer-generated technical selling on Monday morning that, in minutes, knocked gold prices back down to psychologically important technical support levels just above $1300 an ounce. I do not subscribe to any of the various conspiracy ...

Gold: Now is the Time


I’m frequently asked, “Is now a good time to own gold?”  I’m no “gold bug” but I am super-bullish on gold’s long-term prospects.  I believe now is an excellent time to invest in gold . . . and I advocate investors hold five-to-ten percent (and for some, sometimes more) of their investment assets in physical gold. Importantly, gold’s inclusion in a ...

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