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Latest Commentaries

Gold: Stuck in the Mud . . . But For How Long?

A reassessment of economic prospects and Fed policy in the weeks and months ahead could be just the turn of events that will support a springtime recovery in the price of gold, lifting the yellow metal up and out of its recent trading range.  

Gold prices have been stuck in the mud, trading in recent weeks mostly between $1,175 and $1,225 an ounce. Unless some “outside-the-market” surprise comes along to push gold one way or the other, the yellow metal could remain range bound for weeks to come.

Meanwhile, short-term fluctuations within this $50 an ounce trading range will continue to be “data driven.”

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Economic Growth, Fed Policy, and the Price of Gold

From day to day and week to week, short-run fluctuations in the price of gold have, of late, been driven almost entirely by expectations of prospective Federal Reserve monetary policies, particularly with respect to short-term interest rates. In turn, these expectations have been driven by the flow of economic data and the somewhat opaque and ...

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Think Long-Term

Although I expect gold prices to rise sharply by the end of the year, possibly even testing its all-time high near $1924 an ounce, I’m the first to admit that short-term forecasts are highly uncertain. I’m much more confident about the long-term prospects for gold. Indeed, looking out towards the end of the decade and beyond, I believe the ...

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The Dollar Reigns Supreme . . . But For How Long?

Having failed in its attempt earlier this month to move above $1,300 an ounce, gold is once again looking for sustainable support under the technically and psychologically important $1,200 level. How quickly things can change in world financial markets: Just a few weeks ago it looked like gold might break-out on the upside on the back of bullish ...

GOLD: Sound & Fury . . . But What’s It All Mean?

Gold-price volatility so far this year has been a reflection of short-term speculative activity by a relatively small group of hedge funds and other institutional traders taking relatively large positions in “paper” markets.   In paper markets, no physical gold actually changes hands.  Instead, trading of futures and forward contracts, as well ...

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Gold: Pregnant with Possibility

This year, 2015, could be the year for gold to shine. Having recorded its all-time high above $1920 an ounce in September 2011, the metal has been in decline now for nearly three and a half years and, consequently, its allure as a reliable hedge asset and store of value has been tarnished. But while gold as been scorned by many Westerners – ...

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